How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

One day we will westerners will learn why the Chinese are releasing models that are optimized for cost of training n yet good enough to run locally or cheaply.

when the music stops, suddenly a lot of people won't just sit on the ground but plunge into the depths of hell.

I keep hearing this but I don’t know of many folks utilizing Chinese models, even those hosted in an agreeable territory.

i'm starting a new trend: ask every person that is so certain about the negative outlook how big their short position is. so how big is your short position? please let us know.

here's another trend: every time a person is on this hype bandwagon ask them how much are they invested in nvidia/ms/openai/etc

I am not invested in anything except popcorn to watch it burst;)

Yeah, I'm one of them, using Qwen 3 coder on Cerebras as coding agent through CC. What I keep hearing is (very ballpark anecdata)...

50% of people into coding agents are quite concerned about that last mile in difference with frontier models that they "can't afford to lose" - my experience tells me otherwise, the difference is negligible once you have a good setup going and knows how to tune your model + agent.

The other 50% don't give a damn, they just landed, or got locked, into some deal for a coding agent and are happy with what they got, so why change? These deals arrived from the big model providers and resellers first, so Chinese arrived late and with too little to the party.

Running Chinese models (for coding) requires many things that you need to figure-out yourself. Are you running the model on your hw or through a provider? Are you paying by token or on a plan? Does the model pair well with you agent CLI/IDE of choice? (Zed, Cline, Opencode, etc) Does it even work with your favorite tool? (tool calling is very wobbly) Is it fast (tps)? Is it reliable? How do you do "ultrathink" with a secondary model? How do you do "large context"? Does it include a cache or are you going to eat through the plan in 1hr/day? What context size are you getting? Does it include vision and web search or do you have to get another provider/mcp for that? And, yeah, is it in a territory where you can send your client's code to? A lot to grok.

Cerebras Coder Max is really cool if you want to hack your way through this, but they couldn't care less about your experience: no cache, no tool endpoint fine-tuning, no plans or roadmap on updating models, on increasing context windows, adding vision, or anything really. They just deleted some of the tools they were recommending out of the website (ie Cursor) as they got reports of things that stopped working.

That's a dishonest argument. For a short to work, you need to be right about the direction _and_ the timing. Being right too soon amounts to being wrong, and the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

But see that's exactly my point - I am invested so actually I don't go around "talking my book" but you have zero skin in the game so your opinion matters about as much as Bob down at the bar watching the game on TV.

> market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.

> Often someone pronounces his propositions with such confident and inflexible defiance that he seems to have entirely laid aside all concern for error. A bet disconcerts him. Sometimes he reveals that he is persuaded enough for one ducat but not for ten. For he would happily bet one, but at ten he suddenly becomes aware of what he had not previously noticed, namely that it is quite possible that he has erred.

—Kant, Critique of Pure Reason

yes this is exactly my strategy in getting people to really reveal the strength of their beliefs :)

Well yeah because in the end we're all dead. There will be a day when AI companies are like GE, IBM, or maybe even Intel. All innovative companies in the fullness of time stop being innovative. The question is when. It's not a bubble if it deflates in 20 years.

Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. What we can do is make sure we're not overextended on the bubble participants, but that's about it.

No amount of hype from your side can make it a non-bubble market when OpenAI and other companies make wild and impossible to fulfill promises for infrastructure buildup that rely on vague promises of circular money lending between AI SaaS and infra companies.

> Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market.

"The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable".

Makes sense.

If you're invested you have interest to say it's good regardless of reality. because if it's bad first you need to sell off to avoid being the bagholder

Yes you can say you're honest and stuff but does it mean anything if you can go broke from honesty.

Which I find all well and good but you are in the minority. For myself I have no interest in learning any of those things, I value my time differently. Which is totally fine and great for both of us. But going back to the point, most folks are not using these Chinese models.

I have no idea what you're saying - I said I don't talk my book - that means I'm not out here pontificating like Jim Cramer and half of hn.