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Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado

(www.nobelprize.org)
522 points pykello | 2 comments | 10 Oct 25 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.426s | source
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haunter ◴[10 Oct 25 09:10 UTC] No.45536742[source]▶
~10 hours or so before the announcement bets on her skyrocketed on Polymarket

https://x.com/polymarket/status/1976434242386317640

Someone without any history whatsoever put 70k on her 5 hours before the announcement

https://x.com/polywhalewatch/status/1976499384373121488

Trump was never above 5-10% and out of nowhere she was the winner (see the 1 day market view) https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...

replies(4): >>45536815 #>>45537220 #>>45537258 #>>45540592 #
1. vovavili ◴[10 Oct 25 10:32 UTC] No.45537258[source]▶
It would be interesting to see if someone can develop insider trading tracking algorithms to uncover highly probable useful information out of prediction markets before major public announcements. It would be unfair to people involved in markets, but highly beneficial to everyone else, at least so long as prediction markets remain relatively niche.
replies(1): >>45537308 #
2. ◴[10 Oct 25 10:41 UTC] No.45537308[source]▶