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Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado

(www.nobelprize.org)
516 points pykello | 1 comments | 10 Oct 25 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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haunter ◴[10 Oct 25 09:10 UTC] No.45536742[source]▶
~10 hours or so before the announcement bets on her skyrocketed on Polymarket

https://x.com/polymarket/status/1976434242386317640

Someone without any history whatsoever put 70k on her 5 hours before the announcement

https://x.com/polywhalewatch/status/1976499384373121488

Trump was never above 5-10% and out of nowhere she was the winner (see the 1 day market view) https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...

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jychang ◴[10 Oct 25 09:20 UTC] No.45536815[source]▶
This isn't illegal but feels like it should be illegal. You don't see corporate officers trade their stocks right before a big announcement, because there are laws on it.

Other than the fact that polymarket is legally not a stock market, what really is the difference between insider trading on a stock market vs insider trading on polymarket? Does anyone have a good argument for why one should be illegal while the other is legal?

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1. gadders ◴[10 Oct 25 10:00 UTC] No.45537071[source]▶
In the UK some MPs and police officers put bets on the date of the next general election on the basis of inside information. Apparently you can be prosecuted for cheating in a bet:

"The investigation, initiated in June 2024, focused on individuals suspected of using confidential information - specifically advance knowledge of the proposed election date - to gain an unfair advantage in betting markets. Such actions constitute an offence of cheating under Section 42 of the Gambling Act 2005, a criminal offence."

https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/news/article/gambling-...