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Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado

(www.nobelprize.org)
522 points pykello | 1 comments | 10 Oct 25 09:03 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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haunter ◴[10 Oct 25 09:10 UTC] No.45536742[source]▶
~10 hours or so before the announcement bets on her skyrocketed on Polymarket

https://x.com/polymarket/status/1976434242386317640

Someone without any history whatsoever put 70k on her 5 hours before the announcement

https://x.com/polywhalewatch/status/1976499384373121488

Trump was never above 5-10% and out of nowhere she was the winner (see the 1 day market view) https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025?t...

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jychang ◴[10 Oct 25 09:20 UTC] No.45536815[source]▶
This isn't illegal but feels like it should be illegal. You don't see corporate officers trade their stocks right before a big announcement, because there are laws on it.

Other than the fact that polymarket is legally not a stock market, what really is the difference between insider trading on a stock market vs insider trading on polymarket? Does anyone have a good argument for why one should be illegal while the other is legal?

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1. tabular ◴[10 Oct 25 09:42 UTC] No.45536963[source]▶
If the goal is accurate predictions, then the market works much better with insider trading like this.