Nobel Peace Prize 2025: María Corina Machado

It's to the benefit of the market to have such rules, so it's likely a matter of time, assuming growth continues.

Just the opposite. It's to the 'benefit of the market' to let insiders trade. That is, if you think that the point of a prediction market is to get accurate predictions (and the point of a financial market is to get accurate prices).

However, I agree that they might get rules against this. But not to benefit the market, just because people think this would be proper. Social desirability bias is strong.

In the long run, if participants feel they can't ever win because there's always an insider taking advantage, then participants might leave and that's to the detriment of the market. So it might be in the interest of the market to make sure everyone has a fair enough chance. Finding the right balance here is somewhat of an art.

This is similar to the way all football teams benefit from fair referees and even matches, even if sometimes it means they lose.

Also: the point of an exchange is to make money. Different types of exchanges have different fee structures, but generally their profit is a function of volume, so there primary objective is to attract volume. Since every trade / bet requires two participants, they need to balance the needs of both participants to make it work. Price discovery is a positive side effect of efficient and fair markets, which is why as a society we like them and encourage them, but it isn't what they are trying to achieve except inasmuch as it encourages participation.