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Embracing the parallel coding agent lifestyle

(simonwillison.net)
159 points jbredeche | 11 comments | 06 Oct 25 10:40 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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cuttothechase ◴[09 Oct 25 19:29 UTC] No.45532033[source]▶
The fact that we now have to write cook book about cook books kind of masks the reality that there is something that could be genuinely wrong about this entire paradigm.

Why are even experts unsure about whats the right way to do something or even if its possible to do something at all, for anything non-trivial? Why so much hesitancy, if this is the panacea? If we are so sure then why not use the AI itself to come up with a proven paradigm?

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MrDarcy ◴[09 Oct 25 19:40 UTC] No.45532137[source]▶
This is like any other new technology. We’re figuring it out.
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1. cuttothechase ◴[09 Oct 25 19:49 UTC] No.45532234[source]▶
Mostly agree but with one big exception. The real issue seems to be that the figuring out part is happening a bit too late. A bit like burn a few hundred billion dollars [0] first ask questions later!?

[0] - https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/econo...

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2. ◴[09 Oct 25 19:57 UTC] No.45532312[source]▶
3. baq ◴[09 Oct 25 20:19 UTC] No.45532582[source]▶
The bets are placed because if this tech really keeps scaling for the next few years, only the ones who bet today will be left standing.

If the tech stops scaling, whatever we have today is still useful and in some domains revolutionary.

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4. cuttothechase ◴[09 Oct 25 20:44 UTC] No.45532864[source]▶
Is it fair to categorize that it is a pyramid like scheme but with a twist at the top where there are a few (more than a one) genuine wins and winners?
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5. ◴[09 Oct 25 21:43 UTC] No.45533411{3}[source]▶
6. jonas21 ◴[09 Oct 25 21:58 UTC] No.45533542{3}[source]▶
No, it's more like a winner take all market, where a few winners will capture most of the value, and those who sit on the sidelines until everything is figured out are left fighting over the scraps.
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7. oblio ◴[10 Oct 25 00:04 UTC] No.45534282{4}[source]▶
Yes, just like:

* PCs (how are Altair and Commodore doing? also Apple ultimately lost the desktop battle until they managed to attack it from the iPod and iPhone angle)

* search engines (Altavista, Excite, etc)

* social networks (Friendster, MySpace, Orkut)

* smartphones (Nokia, all Windows CE devices, Blackberry, etc)

The list is endless. First mover advantage is strong but overrated. Apple has been building a huge business based on watching what others do and building a better product market fit.

replies(1): >>45535135 #
8. galaxyLogic ◴[10 Oct 25 01:13 UTC] No.45534610{4}[source]▶
> it's more like a winner take all market

I'm not sure, why must it be so? In cell-phones we have Apple and Android-phones. In OSes we have Linux, Windows, and Apple.

In search-engines we used to have just Google. But what would be the reason to assume that AI must similarly coalesce to a single winner-take-all? And now AI agents are much providing an alternative to Google.

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9. jonas21 ◴[10 Oct 25 03:26 UTC] No.45535135{5}[source]▶
Yes, exactly! These are all examples of markets where a handful of winners (or sometimes only one) have emerged by investing large amounts of money in developing the technology, leaving everyone else behind.
10. intended ◴[10 Oct 25 05:49 UTC] No.45535692{5}[source]▶
You don’t see all the also rans.
11. modo_mario ◴[10 Oct 25 08:40 UTC] No.45536593{5}[source]▶
>I'm not sure, why must it be so? In cell-phones...

And then described a bunch of winners in a winner take all market. Do you see many people trying to revive any of the apple/android alternatives or starting a new one?

Such a market doesn't have to end up in a monopoly that gets broken up. Plenty of rather sticky duopolies or otherwise severely consolidated markets and the like out there.