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392 points lairv | 5 comments | | HN request time: 0.014s | source
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HAL3000 ◴[] No.45528648[source]
All of the examples in videos are cherry picked. Go ask anyone working on humanoid robots today, almost everything you see here, if repeated 10 times, will enter failure mode because the happy path is so narrow. There should really be benchmarks where you invite robots from different companies, ask them beforehand about their capabilities, and then create an environment that is within those capabilities but was not used in the training data, and you will see the real failure rate. These things are not ready for anything besides tech demos currently. Most of the training is done in simulations that approximate physics, and the rest is done manually by humans using joysticks (almost everything they do with hands). Failure rates are staggering.
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ipnon ◴[] No.45529270[source]
Now the question is if this is GPT-2 and we’re a decade away from autonomous androids given some scaling and tweaks, or if autonomous androids is just an extremely hard problem.
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lossolo ◴[] No.45529367[source]
https://www.figure.ai/company

"Building Figure won’t be an easy win; it will require decades of commitment and ingenuity."

"Our focus is on what we can achieve 5, 10, 20+ years from now, not the near-term wins."

At least it's not Musk's forever "next year".

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MountDoom ◴[] No.45529591[source]
> At least it's not Musk's forever "next year".

The problem with the principled approach to high-uncertainty projects is that if you slowly execute on a sequential multi-year plan, you will almost certainly find out in year 9 that multiple of the late-stage tasks are much harder than you thought.

You just don't know ahead of the time. Just look at how many corporations and research labs had decades-long strategies to build human-like AI that went nowhere. And then some guys came up with a novel architecture and all of sudden, you can ask your computer to write an essay about penguins.

Musk's approach is that if you have an infinite supply of fresh grads who really believe in you and are willing to work crazy hours, giving them a "next year" deadline is more likely to give you what you want than telling them "here's your slow-paced project you're gonna be working on for the next decade". And I guess he thinks to himself that some of them are going to burn out, but it's a sacrifice he's willing to make.

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1. Judgmentality ◴[] No.45530203[source]
> Musk's approach is that if you have an infinite supply of fresh grads who really believe in you and are willing to work crazy hours, giving them a "next year" deadline is more likely to give you what you want than telling them "here's your slow-paced project you're gonna be working on for the next decade". And I guess he thinks to himself that some of them are going to burn out, but it's a sacrifice he's willing to make.

This feels incredibly generous. I'm pretty sure his approach is that he needs to keep the hype cycle going for as long as possible. I also believe it's partially his willingness to believe his own bullshit.

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2. blackoil ◴[] No.45530687[source]
Most likely you are right. Best way to peddle a lie is to believe it.
3. rishabhaiover ◴[] No.45533197[source]
I’d rather put my faith in his grand illusions than in your sanctimonious high priest pose.
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4. higginsniggins ◴[] No.45533214[source]
who do you think spins "grand illusions" if not your "high priest" who dosn't even know you exist.
5. ◴[] No.45539903[source]