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1245 points mriguy | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.203s | source
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mister_mort ◴[] No.45306080[source]
If this is truly per application, the companies that try to boost their chances with the lottery by creating multiple applications for the same person are going to get hit hard. Phantom companies that only exist on paper so people can tweak the probabilities are now liabilities.

We'll see a rebalancing for sure.

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DeRock ◴[] No.45306292[source]
> the companies that try to boost their chances with the lottery by creating multiple applications for the same person

This was already addressed by changing the odds to be per unique candidate, not application, thereby reducing the incentive to game it. More context here: https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/news-releases/uscis-announces...

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namirez ◴[] No.45306442[source]
Unfortunately that doesn't work in practice since the consulting firms submit multiple applications for multiple candidates to get one candidate in. I believe charging extra for each application is a good way to discourage this practice but I'm not sure if $100k is the right number or not. To me it seems a bit too high.
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1. DeRock ◴[] No.45306643[source]
The odds are now per candidate, not per application. If they submit multiple applications, it does not up chances for that candidate in any way.

And yes, it does work, because we have data from the year before this change, to the year after to compare against. The "Eligible Registrations for Beneficiaries with Multiple Eligible Registrations" dropped from 47,314 for FY 2025 to 7,828 for FY 2026. Source: https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-announces-strengthened-i...

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2. mcflubbins ◴[] No.45306714[source]
> the consulting firms submit multiple applications for multiple candidates to get one candidate in.
3. nosianu ◴[] No.45307860[source]
> If they submit multiple applications, it does not up chances for that candidate in any way.

I believe the parent commenter's argument is that they instead play the game with multiple people. The increased chance is not per person, but achieved by using more people, each with their own chance.

I don't know if they do this, I merely find the argument itself intriguing with the shift in perspective, and that you as the reader has to keep track of the change in context from the individual one level up.