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Inflation erased U.S. income gains last year

(www.wsj.com)
177 points JumpCrisscross | 3 comments | 09 Sep 25 19:44 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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pavlov ◴[09 Sep 25 21:41 UTC] No.45189623[source]▶
This year both inflation and unemployment are going up, so it’s only getting worse.
replies(3): >>45189812 #>>45190675 #>>45191395 #
newfriend ◴[09 Sep 25 23:04 UTC] No.45190675[source]▶
Inflation is lower than it was at the beginning of the year. Which means inflation is actually going down this year.
replies(2): >>45190970 #>>45191262 #
Retric ◴[10 Sep 25 00:00 UTC] No.45191262[source]▶
We don’t have accurate data for most of 2025. The second half of 2024 was much better than the first half of 2024 which is really helping those year long moving averages, but the monthly inflation numbers have been increasing recently so it’s far to early to say what 2024 vs 2025 will actually look like.
replies(1): >>45191415 #
chrisco255 ◴[10 Sep 25 00:17 UTC] No.45191415{3}[source]▶
Yes we do, price data is very reliable on a monthly basis:

https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-pri...

Employment figures are different and have had lots of problems in recent years.

replies(1): >>45191430 #
1. Retric ◴[10 Sep 25 00:19 UTC] No.45191430{4}[source]▶
You linked CPI for July which covers 7 out of 12 months. However, pricing data isn’t quite inflation data as that includes housing data which is sampled every 6 months.

Now if you’re happy comparing 12 month CPI averages ending in July then sure 2025’s July was 0.2% lower than 2024’s July. But I’m assuming you’re talking Jan-Dec 2024 which we have vs Jan-Dec 2025 which IMO is to early to call.

replies(1): >>45193189 #
2. chrisco255 ◴[10 Sep 25 04:13 UTC] No.45193189[source]▶
Not only is 7 out of 12 months most of 2025, but a 12 or 13 month rolling average is generally fine to see trends and it's completely arbitrary as to whether you are observing July-June or Jan-Dec. Try looking at the economy from a Chinese or Hebrew calendar perspective. Does it really matter as long as you have a years worth of data including all seasons? No.
replies(1): >>45193270 #
3. Retric ◴[10 Sep 25 04:26 UTC] No.45193270[source]▶
7 out of 12 for CPI is not 7 out of 12 for inflation. Also, 7 out of 12 may be a majority of X but it’s not “most of” X.

> Does it really matter as long as you have a years worth of data including all seasons?

Using the correct words for something makes a big difference for communication. After jumping through all these hoops we understand what we each mean at this point, but it definitely didn’t need to take this much back and forth.