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177 points JumpCrisscross | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.203s | source
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Esophagus4 ◴[] No.45190331[source]
I’m nervous Trump seems to be pushing so hard for rate cuts given this reality of what seems like uneasy inflation.

That will likely benefit hard assets like real estate and those with big stock portfolios, as top blue chips generally have some pricing power to offset increased cost, but I think real income will drop and you’ll get all sorts of weird second order consequences.

If I had enough confidence in it, an interesting bet might be borrowing to invest in big tech blue chips. You’re betting that Trump gets his way with the Fed politically, tech benefits from low rates, tech has power to raise prices, and that Trump will inflate away your debt.

Won’t be good for most Americans, but if you can’t beat em, join em?

{not financial advice}

replies(3): >>45190568 #>>45190645 #>>45191280 #
1. bradleyjg ◴[] No.45191280[source]
The Fed only controls the overnight rate, the shortest term rate. If it loses its reputation for independence we may well see higher long term rates even if they cut the overnight rate to zero. That would be quite bad for real estate.

The next step if that happened could well be the puppetized Fed expanding the balance sheet to buy long term bonds. That would probably be bad for everything. Except perhaps gold.