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177 points JumpCrisscross | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.206s | source
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Esophagus4 ◴[] No.45190331[source]
I’m nervous Trump seems to be pushing so hard for rate cuts given this reality of what seems like uneasy inflation.

That will likely benefit hard assets like real estate and those with big stock portfolios, as top blue chips generally have some pricing power to offset increased cost, but I think real income will drop and you’ll get all sorts of weird second order consequences.

If I had enough confidence in it, an interesting bet might be borrowing to invest in big tech blue chips. You’re betting that Trump gets his way with the Fed politically, tech benefits from low rates, tech has power to raise prices, and that Trump will inflate away your debt.

Won’t be good for most Americans, but if you can’t beat em, join em?

{not financial advice}

replies(3): >>45190568 #>>45190645 #>>45191280 #
1. NewJazz ◴[] No.45190645[source]
Debt is usually one of the best hedges against inflation. Instead of buying stocks on margin, though, people usually buy more price inelastic assets like homes.
replies(2): >>45190945 #>>45191436 #
2. Esophagus4 ◴[] No.45190945[source]
Yeah, I’ve just never really liked the carry costs of a house… taxes, maintenance, utilities, transaction costs, etc. and never wanted to deal with being a landlord.

Plus, while the real estate market on a whole might go up, I have a hunch the chances of one individual house appreciating are more varied than the chances of one of the big tech stocks appreciating… as they are the market at this point.

Edit to add: I think for the average American, real estate is the only plausible way to invest on margin, as you’ll never get 5:1 leverage at your brokerage, if you even have a brokerage.

3. ajross ◴[] No.45191436[source]
That's because the median person qualifies for a vastly larger mortgage than margin limit.

Margin trading is for the already-wealthy. You can get a home with near-zero assets.