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61 points pseudolus | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.512s | source
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jameslk ◴[] No.45186475[source]
> But the bigger problem for housing affordability, he adds, is that "we just haven't built enough [homes] to keep up with the population growth and household formation."

The circular incentive here is left unsaid. If a house is an investment, you and every other homeowner has an incentive to keep supply low and demand high. This ultimately drives votes, lobbying, and policies that prevent houses being built. Otherwise you end up with falling rents and stagnating property prices, like in Austin.

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/cooling-rent-growth-d...

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1. bluGill ◴[] No.45187106[source]
Most people are investing in houses wrong. If you want to invest as most people think of investments you really need several houses and rent them out. Owning your own home as well makes sense, but your own house is not an investment in the same terms even though it is one of the houses you own!

A house falling in value is still a great investment for many, but it is a very different type of investment from what most people mean by investment. By owning a house you have a place to live for the same price even as inflation increases you income. By owning a house you have a place to live after it is paid for when you are retired and have a much smaller income (even if you have more money you have more time to enjoy/spend that money when you are not working 40 hours per week) - retirement savings are limited and houses are a great place to store money that doesn't falling into traditional accounts. These are great things to have long term, but none of them are about the increase in value. The house you live in is an investment in future rent, but you should only think of the value in terms of paying for your nursing home if/when you need one (even then you should have long term care insurance despite all the fraud and near-fraud in this area)

The idea that rents fall and property values stagnate is short term thinking. Over any 5 year period is can be true, but over 10+ years inflation tends to catch up. Unless you are buying in a very rural area nobody wants to live in - Austin doesn't qualify. Sure prices will fall, but builders have a lot of fixed costs and so that limits supply and in turn ensures prices will need to go up as population expands, or just the old houses start wearing out (houses last for a long time with maintenance, but eventually)

I'm not blindly advocating everybody buy a house. Buying vs renting is a complex question, and many people have proven they can do well in life with both. You need to make your own decisions based on your life situation. If you buy be careful not to think of your house in terms of any other investments you make - it needs very different accounting.