Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?

Is it even a question that we’re in a bubble?

The effects of the technology would have to rival that of.. idk, soap and the locomotive combined? In order for us not to be in a bubble.

It has swallowed nearly all discourse about technology and almost all development, nearly every single area of technology is showing markers of recession.. except AI, which has massively inflated salaries and valuations.

I can’t even think of a scenario where we don’t look back on this as a bubble. What does the tech need to be able to do in order to cover its investment?

Replace a significant portion of the workforce reliably (IMHO). And if that happens, I wonder what's next. I mean, if we automate say 30% of jobs these people won't be employable anymore without a drastic change in their careers' trajectories (I mean, they have been automated out of work once, any company would eventually do the same).

When that happens they will end up overcrowding other jobs sectors pushing salaries down for people already in these fields. Once that happens, the lost of purchase power will hit every sector and drag down economies anyway.

So, if I have to summarize my thoughts, we are either in a bubble that will pop and drag down AI related stocks, or it is not a bubble because the tech will actually deliver on what CEOs are touting and there will be high unemployment/lower salaries for many which in turn will mess up other parts of the economy.

Happy to be wrong, but given the hype on AI the winning conditions have to be similarly high, and millions losing their jobs will for sure have huge repercussions.