Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?

I don't know exactly where AI is going to go, but the fact that I keep seeing this one study of programmer productivity, with like 16 people with limited experience with cursor,uncritically quoted over and over assures me that the anti-AI fervor is at least as big of a bubble as the AI bubble itself.

> uncritically quoted over and over assures me that the anti-AI fervor is at least as big of a bubble as the AI bubble itself.

Counterpoint: the AI fanboys and AI companies, with all their insane funding couldn't come up with a better study and bigger sample size, because LLMs simply don't help experienced developers.

What follows is that the billion dollar companies just couldn't create a better study, either because they tried and didn't like the productivity numbers not being in their favor (very likely), or because they are that sloppy and vibey that they don't know how to make a proper study (I wouldn't be surprised, see ChatGPT's latest features: "study mode" which had a blog post! and you know that the level is not very high).

Again, until there is a better study, the consensus is LLMs are 19% productivity drain for experienced developers, and if they help certain developers, then most likely those developers are not experienced.

How's that for an interpretation?

I never tell anyone they have to use AI tools. You do you. In a few years we will see who is better off.