←back to thread

Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?

(www.theatlantic.com)
51 points ForHackernews | 1 comments | 07 Sep 25 19:59 UTC | HN request time: 0.218s | source
Show context
dijit ◴[07 Sep 25 20:37 UTC] No.45161904[source]▶
Is it even a question that we’re in a bubble?

The effects of the technology would have to rival that of.. idk, soap and the locomotive combined? In order for us not to be in a bubble.

It has swallowed nearly all discourse about technology and almost all development, nearly every single area of technology is showing markers of recession.. except AI, which has massively inflated salaries and valuations.

I can’t even think of a scenario where we don’t look back on this as a bubble. What does the tech need to be able to do in order to cover its investment?

replies(5): >>45161934 #>>45161938 #>>45161991 #>>45162025 #>>45162096 #
marcyb5st ◴[07 Sep 25 20:52 UTC] No.45162025[source]▶
Replace a significant portion of the workforce reliably (IMHO). And if that happens, I wonder what's next. I mean, if we automate say 30% of jobs these people won't be employable anymore without a drastic change in their careers' trajectories (I mean, they have been automated out of work once, any company would eventually do the same).

When that happens they will end up overcrowding other jobs sectors pushing salaries down for people already in these fields. Once that happens, the lost of purchase power will hit every sector and drag down economies anyway.

So, if I have to summarize my thoughts, we are either in a bubble that will pop and drag down AI related stocks, or it is not a bubble because the tech will actually deliver on what CEOs are touting and there will be high unemployment/lower salaries for many which in turn will mess up other parts of the economy.

Happy to be wrong, but given the hype on AI the winning conditions have to be similarly high, and millions losing their jobs will for sure have huge repercussions.

replies(2): >>45162072 #>>45169424 #
dijit ◴[07 Sep 25 20:57 UTC] No.45162072[source]▶
Yeah, this basically continually happens.

Look at history, there’s so many jobs that have been automated yet we still have 95%+ employment in most countries and effectively “double” the workforce as we’re pushing dual-income households as a standard.

I’m not sure how our obscenely wealthy overlords think things will play out when we’re all wage-slaves barely able to scrape by. It hasn’t worked out for any society historically.

replies(1): >>45162169 #
1. kjkjadksj ◴[07 Sep 25 21:08 UTC] No.45162169[source]▶
I think that misses the nuance of what happens as this shakes out. We have ghost towns all over the west and cities with a fraction of their historic population in the middle of the country. Maybe employment is 95% in whatever county that ghost town is in, but that is only because people have left for other jobs and not stuck around to be destitute. And this was made possible thanks to there being other jobs available someplace else.

Now, what happens if there are no jobs available someplace else? Would the sort of leadership we have in power these days consider a New Deal esque plan for mass public work projects and employment opportunities when the private sector has none available? Or would they see it as an opportunity to bring back a sort of feudalism or plantation economy where people aren’t really compensated at all and allowed to starve if not immediately economically useful?