Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?

Yeah an exec asked me about the METR study, somewhat alarmed. I told him they were measuring productivity of open source developers. He didn't understand the implications. He was relieved when I informed him that he should still expect productivity gains because his devs were bad enough at their jobs to see a boost.

I would see AI being a multiplying factor. and 3 * a negative number is 3 times worse.