The Universe Within 12.5 Light Years

When the Fermi Paradox was first posited, scientists and engineers seemed to believe that interstellar travel was soon to be technologically achievable, a few decades, maybe centuries for the less optimistic. Progress around space propulsion has kind of stalled since then and we should maybe question the possibility of interstellar travel as this would give an easy but unpleasant answer to the famous paradox.

Right- “where are all the aliens?” is answered by either “they don’t exist” or “they do but physics of the universe prevent them from moving between solar systems.”

Or: we're the first (or among the first). The history that led to space travel (modern human technology) has passed through an insane amount of unlikely scenarios.

A few of these:

* Astronomical: the sun is unusually calm for a star. Jupiter blocks comets. Saturn blocked Jupiter from destroying the Earth.

* Earth is 4.5 billion years old. In the next 0.5-1 billion years Earth will become unhabitable because the sun's luminosity is increasing. We're in the twilight years of the (life-supporting) planet.

* Above point + think about all the species that came before us. Life appeared 3.5-3.8 billion years ago. It took that long to get to humans.

* Dinosaurs got wiped out. Would humans have even evolved if a cosmic event hadn't cleared the board?

* We think that human ancestors dropped down to about 1000-100,000 individuals about 900k years ago.

There's also the question of how many sun-like stars in terms of metallicity there are that preceded the sun. Our sun inherited a lot of heavier elements from a previous generation of star(s).

Add all of these together and we might be early to the party.

I believe this argument is fallacious. There could be infinite other ways a species could have evolved to acquire space technology. A smart dinosaur that evolved to use arms and tail could perhaps have built an industrial civilization. They would’ve been now 100 million years old! Imagine the progress. Them being wiped out probably just delayed civilization by millions of years.