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The wall confronting large language models

(arxiv.org)
170 points PaulHoule | 2 comments | 03 Sep 25 11:40 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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dcre ◴[03 Sep 25 20:10 UTC] No.45119904[source]▶
Always fun to see a theoretical argument that something clearly already happening is impossible.
replies(2): >>45120040 #>>45120369 #
crowbahr ◴[03 Sep 25 21:00 UTC] No.45120369[source]▶
Really? It sure seems like we're at the top of the S curve with LLMs. Wiring them up to talk the themselves as reasoning isn't scaling the core models, which have only made incremental gains for all the billions invested.

There's plenty more room to grow with agents and tooling, but the core models are only slightly bumping YoY rather than the rocketship changes of 2022/23.

replies(3): >>45121228 #>>45123377 #>>45125522 #
1. EMM_386 ◴[03 Sep 25 22:51 UTC] No.45121228[source]▶
> the core models are only slightly bumping YoY rather than the rocketship changes of 2022/23

From Anthropic's press release yesterday after raising another $13 billion:

"Anthropic has seen rapid growth since the launch of Claude in March 2023. At the beginning of 2025, less than two years after launch, Anthropic’s run-rate revenue had grown to approximately $1 billion. By August 2025, just eight months later, our run-rate revenue reached over $5 billion—making Anthropic one of the fastest-growing technology companies in history."

$4 billion increase in 8 months. $1 billion every two months.

replies(1): >>45121531 #
2. dcre ◴[03 Sep 25 23:31 UTC] No.45121531[source]▶
They’re talking about model quality. I still think they’re wrong, but the revenue is only indirectly relevant.