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190 points erwinmatijsen | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.202s | source
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arowthway ◴[] No.45113659[source]
This is super cool but the ending is bizarre.

> A comment on the YouTube video below complained, “Not a word about return on investment in the presentation. That means it’ll never pay off” MAGAlomaniacs are everywhere these days.

Given the supposed 50+ year lifespan of such a battery, I find it hard to believe it doesn't turn a profit at some point. And I understand that debunking low-effort accusations is asymmetric warfare. But why cite a random YouTube comment if you have no intention of addressing its claims? A more charitable interpretation is that it's meant to ragebait the readers. But to me, it seems like trying to make people feel ashamed for having doubts, by making a public example of a skeptic.

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ta1243 ◴[] No.45113894[source]
People nowadays expect 10% return on their investment, so if you invest 1m you need to make 100k a year from it (120k to cover the deprecation over 50 years)

If you made 30k a year for 50 years you'd return 1.5m from your 1m investment, but you're only making 3%, which is a low return especially given the future risk (you'd have to run for 33 years just to get your initial investment back)

Either way it's worthwhile, because the reason people expect 10% is because the externalities are borne by others. Majority of people and countries in the world do not deem ROI to be the sole or even primary driver for investment, and judging investments only on the immediate financial reward already biases the conversation

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Avamander ◴[] No.45114006[source]
> Majority of people and countries in the world do not deem ROI to be the sole or even primary driver for investment

It's partially that, other part is that we aren't really pricing in all the externalities of everything out there. So it's not that "there's no ROI", it's that "we aren't factoring things in the ROI calculation".

So while a heat battery might not make a huge profit, the ability to burn less fuel (less air pollution, less waste, etc), to offer redundancy and stability, the know-how and work it creates, that is all valuable as well.

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1. strken ◴[] No.45114598[source]
It's possible and often desirable to calculate the estimated impact of externalities, positive and negative. Human lives are (in)famously given a monetary value by environmental agencies to enable this calculation.

I think the more likely explanation is that this is a pilot project by a clean energy startup, it intentionally operates at a loss because it's RnD rather than mature tech, everyone involved is okay with this, and the company doesn't want to release its modelling of future ROI because that's valuable proprietary data and giving it away to clients and competitors is dumb.