Anthropic raises $13B Series F

So many negative comments here! The fact that one of the top players in a new market segment with significant growth potential can raise $13B at a 20x revenue valuation is not the bubble indicator you think it is.

It's at least possible that the investment pays off. These investors almost certainly aren't insane or stupid.

We may still be in a bubble, but before you declare money doesn't mean anything any more and start buying put options I'd probably look for more compelling evidence than this.

> These investors almost certainly aren't insane or stupid.

I'm sure this exact sentence was said before every bubble burst.

These are the same investors who got scammed by SBF who didn't even have a basic spreadsheet that explained the finances.

... or really any SoftBank Vision Fund backed startup

That sounds very cynical and knowing which is obviously great, but not super interesting. Do you think the investors are insane or stupid? Do you think this is a bubble and that it's about to burst? I'm interested to know why.

Most investors I've heard talk about the AI bubble have mentioned exactly that they know it is a bubble. They are just playing the game, because there is money to be made before that bubble bursts. And additionally, there is real value in these companies.

I would assume the majority of investors in AI are playing a game of estimating how much more these AI valuations can run before crashing, and whether that crash will matter in the long-run if the growth of these companies lives up to their estimates.

Remind me what happened re. SoftBank + WeWork.

I see two of nineteen investors were also invested in FTX (Insight and Ontario teachers). With hindsight that's a bad investment although they probably recovered their money here so probably not their worst. Does this actually tell you they are stupid or insane?

I think that's one possible interpretation but another is that these funds choose to allocate a controlled portion of their capital toward high risk investments with the expectation that many will fail but some will pay off. It's far from clear that they are crazy or stupid.

They recovered their money but what about the opportunity cost? Its actually an economic loss. In retrospect given the risk it was a pretty terrible investment.

> can raise $13B at a 20x revenue valuation is not the bubble indicator you think it is.

What a minute. Isn't this the very definition of a bubble?

Why WeWork and not Alibaba?

Answer: It's easy to pick and choose to prove one's point.

Softbank has been doing well lately by the way:

https://www.ebc.com/forex/softbank-stock-price-jumps-13-afte...

Do you think some arbitrary multiple defines a bubble?

20x earnings is not that insane for a fast growing startup. Now Tesla and Palantir at 100x earnings is insane.

Tesla and Palantir are both propped up by the federal government, kinda poor examples.

Yeah maybe, but the point is there are plenty of public companies trading at a 20x earnings multiple

Lol youre missing the point.

The WeWork investment proved Son never has an investment thesis - other than spray and pray.

Agree - as I said it's a bad investment with hindsight.

If you don't have hindsight then passing on FTX probably implies passing on some successful opportunities too. So another opportunity cost and possibly a larger one.

20x _earnings_ wouldn’t be, but that’s not what we’re talking.