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215 points XzetaU8 | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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ggm ◴[] No.45081331[source]
Remarkable hostility and strange circular logic from some people posting here. Clearly belief outstrips evidence.

If research suggests there's an observable asymptotic trend, public health dollars at the very least might be better spent on quality of life as much as quantity.

The posts saying an atom of oxygen is potentially infinitely long lived (ignoring radioactive decay?) As a "proof" that life extension has no limit is about as reductively silly as it is possible to be.

Bills of mortality bootstrapped Financial investment in annuities. You think the money people aren't tracking this trend now, when they have for the last 400 or more years?

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inglor_cz ◴[] No.45082290[source]
I don't have to be hostile to be somewhat skeptical about mechanical extensions of current trends into distant future.

An analyst living in 1825 could analyze the traffic stats to conclude that the era of increasing land travel speeds is coming to a close because the horses can't run any faster, and an analyst living in 1975 could analyze the telecom stats to conclude that international calls are always going to cost much more than local calls and remain somewhat of a luxury, particularly in the developing world.

In both cases, technological changes intervened.

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YeGoblynQueenne ◴[] No.45082448[source]
And in 1968 an analyst may conclude that space travel could never become routine and still be perfectly on the money even after the moon landings.

So what? We can't see into the future. The future is never like the past, not least because a lot of present tends to intervene.

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inglor_cz ◴[] No.45082669[source]
And that is precisely why I don't find that much value in articles such as "New research reveals longevity gains slowing, life expectancy of 100 unlikely".

Declaration such as:

“We forecast that those born in 1980 will not live to be 100 on average, and none of the cohorts in our study will reach this milestone."

is too self-confident. Their youngest cohort is born in 2000. It is impossible to predict how longevity technology will look in 2070 or 2080, and yet the authors make such bold statements.

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1. YeGoblynQueenne ◴[] No.45091220[source]
Woa. Hold on. I'm talking about "the future" in the context of history. You can predict the future state of some systems, e.g. we can make fairly accurate weather predictions, from past observations of weather events, for sure. As far as I can tell that's what the authors are trying to do.

But if you want to know when the next big technological leap will happen then you won't learn that by looking at what happened last time: last time is not this time, that's my point.