←back to thread

462 points JumpCrisscross | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
haunter ◴[] No.45078660[source]
In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever:

China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries ask for their help. That's why China's growth must be curbed, fast > tariff them to their death or so. But I really don't think it will work at all. And personally I don't even think it's a good idea at all to begin with.

replies(11): >>45078714 #>>45078792 #>>45079037 #>>45079201 #>>45079283 #>>45079402 #>>45079446 #>>45080664 #>>45081379 #>>45081866 #>>45087275 #
mensetmanusman ◴[] No.45087275[source]
China’s GDP growth is no longer in double digits; it’s in the 4–5% range, and many analysts expect it to fall further due to demographic decline and low productivity growth due to capital investments in infrastructure not needed but politically necessary due to city politics.

U.S. per-capita income is roughly $80,000, while China’s is about $13,000. Adjusted for purchasing power it would take decades (at current trajectories, which may be slowing due to EU backlash etc.) to converge.

China leads in high-speed rail and EV adoption. These don’t automatically translate into higher overall living standards — healthcare, wages, pensions, and social safety nets matter more.

China’s lending practices have also led to accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” and some countries are now cautious about overreliance on Chinese help. This is why China negativity amongst all of their immediate neighbors is so high.

replies(1): >>45087991 #
1. edmundsauto ◴[] No.45087991[source]
Debt trap diplomacy is nicely covered in a fun read called Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. Was the standard approach from the US for a while during the Cold War
replies(1): >>45088230 #
2. mensetmanusman ◴[] No.45088230[source]
Such a strategy applied only in foreign aid and development lending. all programs combined was about 0.3% of GDP.

U.S. aid was about Cold War geopolitics, China’s BRI is about long-term economic influence via infrastructure debt.