So how many gates are we talking to factor some "cryptographically useful" number? Is there some pathway that makes quantum computers useful this century?
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You can do useful and valuable quantum chemistry calculations already with few 100s of qubits with that low error rates, while post-quantum algorithms are becoming more common everyday removing incentives to build crypto cracking quantum computers.
I think the quantum computing will advance fastest in directions that are not easy to use in cryptography.
In some special problems hybrid methods start giving gains in 100 qubits or below.
Gate count estimates for performing quantum chemistry on small quantum computers https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.1695
A Perspective on Quantum Computing Applications in Quantum Chemistry using 25--100 Logical Qubits https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.19337