New research reveals longevity gains slowing, life expectancy of 100 unlikely

I find it a tough sell to add another 20 years to life expectancy, considering that by the time you reach 70, most people are already in decline (some worse than others), and the drop from 70 to 80 tends to be steep for many. Those who make it past 80 into their 90s or even 100s often aren’t living particularly fulfilling lives, if you can even call it living at that point.

Losing your vision, your hearing, your mobility, and worst of all, your mind, doesn’t sound very appealing to me.

So unless we find a way to both live longer and to decliner slower, I just don't see the point for the majority of people who will unfortunately live lonely worse lives.

I think this is a huge misconception and I don't think it works this way. have you heard people say 50 is the new 40, etc.? The same thing would work at older ages. Sure the last 10 years are a decline, but you are pushing those years out not adding more of them.

Exactly. I'm the youngest in my family many aunts and uncles are already dead. those who still live are in a huge decline or completely lonely (sometimes both). Mom is in her late 70s and is in good shape, but she complains a lot about loneliness (even though I and my brothers visit her almost daily for a coffee or lunch). I think the joy of living ends with people around you dying.

Wouldn't the people around you also benefit from these advances so in theory they wouldn't be dead in this scenario?

The president of the United States is almost 80. Bernie Sanders is 83. The Stones are still touring, …

Ed Thorpe is well into his 90s. Here’s an interview with him at 89. Seems quite healthy: https://youtu.be/CNvz91Jyzbg?si=VNj61A256ZOBM977

This 10 minutes deals directly with fitness and longevity: https://youtu.be/dzCpUbkC1dg?si=LqV-tUFyxyYMW0qC

Mentioning the president is a bit like saying the pope is old. They are both selected/elected old.

This. Expecting a "150 years lifespan" to look like "90 years of aging normally and then staying at 90 for another 60 years" is simply unrealistic.

The very reason you're expected to die in your 90s is that your body has decayed into a complete mess where nothing works properly anymore and every single capability reserve is at depletion. You die in old age because if you spend long enough at "one sliver away from the breaking point", statistics make going over it inevitable. Even a flu is a mild inconvenience to the young, but often lethal to the elderly.

To make it to the age of 150, you'd pretty much have to spend a lot more time as a healthy, well functioning adult.

People thought the President had died just yesterday because of how rapidly his health has declined since taking office in January. Bernie Sanders, for example, has had multiple health emergencies over the past few years.

Using a few famous people as examples is hardly a reliable metric. My aunt is still alive at 103 and will likely make it to 104 if nothing changes. She has fewer health problems than other family members in their 60s if you discount the fact that she’s basically blind, can't hear well, is stuck in a bed 24/7, and has severe dementia that prevents her from recalling things seconds after being told, aside from some specific memories from her youth. Meanwhile, almost all of her children died under very poor health conditions in their 70s and 80s. Her oldest daughter looked like she was a corpse at 80.

Some people just get lucky with their genes, and it doesn’t always pass on to their children or grand-children.

PS: For reference, she had 11 children, almost all dead now while she's alive and can't recall their names or ever having children.

It really depends on how you live your life. My grandfather on my dad's side never drank or smoked, got a ton of exercise, avoided candy etc. he's in his 80s and still lives in a detached house and walks his two very large dogs daily. My grandmother on my mom's side smoked multiple packs of cigarettes a day, drank a ton of sugary soda, rarely got any real exercise, and died in her 50s after a number of very rough years.

Everyone keeps talking about health care but IMO it's really downstream of you attending yourself. It's almost a spiritual thing really. American health is so bad because Americans don't feel like they themselves are worth taking care of. The contrast between the people who disagree here gets extreme as they age.

> I find it a tough sell to add another 20 years to life expectancy

20 years would be difficult, but 10 or so years would be very attainable.

Yeah, I’m just being lazy because I’ve answered this question many times.

Here’s one from 3 years ago:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34985088

You can always ask the AI:

Politics & World Leaders • Nelson Mandela (1918–2013) – Former President of South Africa, died at 95. • George H. W. Bush (1924–2018) – 41st U.S. President, died at 94. • Jimmy Carter (1924– ) – 39th U.S. President, currently 100 (as of 2024). • Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother (1900–2002) – Died at 101. • Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh (1921–2021) – Died at 99.

Arts & Entertainment • Kirk Douglas (1916–2020) – Actor, died at 103. • Olivia de Havilland (1916–2020) – Actress, died at 104. • Betty White (1922–2021) – Actress/comedian, died at 99. • Norman Lear (1922–2023) – Television writer/producer, died at 101. • Tony Bennett (1926–2023) – Singer, died at 96.

Science & Literature • Bertrand Russell (1872–1970) – Philosopher, died at 97. • Rita Levi-Montalcini (1909–2012) – Nobel Prize–winning neurologist, died at 103. • Frank Lloyd Wright (1867–1959) – Architect, lived to 91. • Maya Angelou (1928–2014) – Poet and author, died at 86 (not 90s, but close). • Isaac Asimov (1920–1992) – Science fiction author, died at 72 (not 90s).

Business & Other Notables • David Rockefeller (1915–2017) – Banker/philanthropist, died at 101. • John D. Rockefeller (1839–1937) – Oil magnate, died at 97. • Iris Apfel (1921–2024) – Fashion icon, died at 102.

We still don't have any 80+ year olds who have been striving for longevity since their 20s. Nutrition labels and ingredient lists on food didn't even exist the 90s. An 80 year old was born into a world of nonstop cigarettes, drinking while pregnant, etc.

So our current obsession with longevity through fitness and nutrition is new and we can't really tell what someone like Bryan Johnson will be like at 80. If he is significantly declined in 20 years despite his rigorous longevity routine then we will know.

I don’t care at all about the pope; they’re meaningless entities.

The President, however, especially when Congress is forced to toe their line, is. No president should be permitted to be more than 20 years older than the median age of the general population when they’re done leading the country. In this case, they shouldn’t be more than 58y old when their 8y term is up. This way, they and their progeny need to live with the decisions made for at least ~20y after they’re out of office.

There’s a reason there is forced retirement in some industries and government groups. Why the fuck we don’t enforce similar rules on the president I’ll never know.

I’m not sure what we’re arguing here.

I responded to someone who said that people in their 70s are already in decline.

How many good years after 70 did she have?

A few weeks ago, I had lunch with a friend and his 80-year-old wife. I would’ve never guessed she was 80.

My own observation is that a lot of decline happens because people stop living and start coasting to the grave, and that can happen decades earlier than 70.

My great-grandfather was physically very active into his 90s, still running his businesses, working in his orchards, and generally being surprisingly productive. He was mentally sharp too; I remember him teaching me about the physics of vacuum energy at length. Seemed like he could go on indefinitely. Then his wife died and he died less than a year later.

I always have him as my model for what I want to be like when I am old. He was still in the game until he wasn’t.

in theory yes, but in practice will the majority of people get the benefits?

The powerball lottery is the greatest investment you can make also if you happen to win.

You have no point.

> There’s a reason there is forced retirement in some industries and government groups. Why the fuck we don’t enforce similar rules on the president I’ll never know.

Yep, I am not a big fan of our military policy, but I have a friend who recently retired as an Army LTC.

At his level there are standard procedures - at each rank you have a timeframe, and the rule is "promote or retire". Precisely to ensure you don't break the assembly line.

Even in software. "We don't hire mid level/junior/associate engineers, only senior/staff". No pipeline can hurt. Yeah, you can hire for all that, but there's value of having junior staff within, when you promote those staff level folks to EMs and Directors.