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462 points JumpCrisscross | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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haunter ◴[] No.45078660[source]
In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever:

China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries ask for their help. That's why China's growth must be curbed, fast > tariff them to their death or so. But I really don't think it will work at all. And personally I don't even think it's a good idea at all to begin with.

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decimalenough ◴[] No.45079201[source]
The craziest thing about all this is that Chinese exports to the US aren't even that big a part of the Chinese economy (3% or so). Sure, it'll hurt and there's multiplier effects, but the entire rest of the world is more than happy to take up the slack. So the tariffs really are the US cutting its own nose off to spite its face.
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refurb ◴[] No.45079300[source]
What do you mean “the rest of the world will take up the slack”?

Is the rest of the world suddenly going to start buying something they haven’t in the past? Why?

And the US consumer market is 2x the size of the next biggest (EU).

How exactly is the the rest of the world going to replace the demand of something several times its size?

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1. decimalenough ◴[] No.45079688{3}[source]
If the US buys less, there will be unsold inventory and a temporary glut in supply, which will lead to the Chinese dropping prices and exporting elsewhere. This is already happening in SE Asia:

https://www.chiangraitimes.com/china/china-export-dumping/

Obviously the profit margin will be less than selling to the US, but it does mean that the 3% of GDP mentioned above is not going away entirely, just shrinking to (say) 2 or 2.5%.

The article also mentions transshipment, where Chinese goods get routed to the US via a third country. Although Trump's strategy of "tariff everybody for all the things" is putting a damper on this too.