Some thoughts on LLMs and software development

In my company I feel that we getting totally overrun with code that's 90% good, 10% broken and almost exactly what was needed.

We are producing more code, but quality is definitely taking a hit now that no-one is able to keep up.

So instead of slowly inching towards the result we are getting 90% there in no time, and then spending lots and lots of time on getting to know the code and fixing and fine-tuning everything.

Maybe we ARE faster than before, but it wouldn't surprise me if the two approaches are closer than what one might think.

What bothers me the most is that I much prefer to build stuff rather than fixing code I'm not intimately familiar with.

"but quality is definitely taking a hit now that no-one is able to keep up."

And its going to get worse! So please explain to me how in the net, you are going to be better off? You're not.

I think most people haven't taken a decent economics class and don't deeply understand the notion of trade offs and the fact there is no free lunch.

Yep, my strong feeling is that the net benefit of all of this will be zero. The time you have to spend holding the LLM hand is almost equal to how much time you would have spent writing it yourself. But then you've got yourself a codebase that you didn't write yourself, and we all know hunting bugs in someone else's code is way harder than code you had a part in designing/writing.

People are honestly just drunk on this thing at this point. The sunken cost fallacy has people pushing on (ie. spending more time) when LLMs aren't getting it right. People are happy to trade convenience for everything else, just look at junk food where people trade in flavour and their health. And ultimately we are in a time when nobody is building for the future, it's all get rich quick schemes: squeeze then get out before anyone asks why the river ran dry. LLMs are like the perfect drug for our current society.

Just look at how technology has helped us in the past decades. Instead of launching us towards some kind of Star Trek utopia, most people now just work more for less!

Only when purely vibe coding. AI currently saves a LOT of time if you get it to generate boilerplate, diagnose bugs, or assist with sandboxed issues.

The proof is in the pudding. The work I do takes me half as long as it used to and is just as high in quality, even though I manage and carefully curate the output.

I use AI for most of those things. And I think it probably saves me a bit of time.

But in that study that came out a few weeks ago where they actually looked at time saved, every single developer overestimated their time saved. To the point where even the ones who lost time thought they saved time.

LLMs are very good at making you feel like you’re saving time even when you aren’t. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a net productivity benefit.

But I’d be very very very surprised if you have real hard data to back up your feelings about your work taking you half as long and being equal quality.

That study predates Claude Code though.

I’m not surprised by the contents. I had the same feeling; I made some attempts at using LLMs for coding prior to CC, and with rare exceptions it never saved me any time.

CC changed that situation hugely, at least in my subjective view. It’s of course possible that it’s not as good as I feel it is, but I would at least want a new study.