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Are OpenAI and Anthropic losing money on inference?

(martinalderson.com)
507 points martinald | 1 comments | 28 Aug 25 10:15 UTC | HN request time: 0.213s | source
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_sword ◴[28 Aug 25 17:53 UTC] No.45055003[source]▶
I've done the modeling on this a few times and I always get to a place where inference can run at 50%+ gross margins, depending mostly on GPU depreciation and how good the host is at optimizing utilization. The challenge for the margins is whether or not you consider model training costs as part of the calculation. If model training isn't capitalized + amortized, margins are great. If they are amortized and need to be considered... yikes
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1. next_xibalba ◴[28 Aug 25 19:44 UTC] No.45056242[source]▶
> whether or not you consider model training costs as part of the calculation

Whether they flow through COGS/COR or elsewhere on the income statement, they've gotta be recognized. In which case, either you have low gross margins or low operating profit (low net income??). Right?

That said, I just can't conceive of a way that training costs are not hitting gross margins. Be it IFRS/GAAP etc., training is 1) directly attributable to the production of the service sold, 2) is not SG&A, financing, or abnormal cost, and thus 3) only makes sense to match to revenue.