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US Intel

(stratechery.com)
539 points maguay | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.202s | source
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themgt ◴[] No.45026515[source]
I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for the next five, ten, or even fifteen years, the seeds of that failure will eventually sprout, just like those 2007 seeds sprouted for Intel over the last couple of years. The only difference is that the repercussions of this failure will be catastrophic not for the U.S.’s leading semiconductor company, but for the U.S. itself.

Very well argued. It's such a stunning dereliction the US let things get to this point. We were doing the "pivot to Asia" over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt? "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost" but in this case the nail is like your entire metallurgical industry outsourced to the territory you plan on fighting over.

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georgeburdell ◴[] No.45026847[source]
If I may add my view as a formerly high-achieving semiconductor worker that Intel would benefit greatly from having right now, a lot of us pivoted to software and machine learning to earn more money. My first 2 years as a software engineer earned me more RSUs than a decade in semiconductors. Semiconductors is not prestigious work in the U.S., despite the strategic importance. By contrast, it is highly respected and relatively well remunerated in the countries doing well in it.

From this lens, the silver lining of the software layoffs going on may be to stem the bleeding of semiconductor workers to the field. If Intel were really smart, they’d be hiring more right now the people they couldn’t get or retain 3-5 years ago

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deepsquirrelnet ◴[] No.45027669[source]
Historically Intel has engaged in illegal wage suppression. Now we bail them out for their crimes.

This was a poor business decision for exactly the reasons you’re pointing out. The market is dictating their failure and we’re now undermining it.

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unethical_ban ◴[] No.45031093[source]
I see your point, but isn't it fair to say Intel is too big to fail?

Not in the "lots of people would lose jobs" or "ripple effects would cause economic disruption" but in the true national security sense. What allied semiconductor manufacturers have significant cutting edge fabs in Europe?

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AngryData ◴[] No.45033986[source]
If they are "too big to fail" then they shouldn't exist because they are also a national security issue. Either let them fall apart and fund everyone but them, or split them apart into multiple companies with new leadership.
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1. unethical_ban ◴[] No.45044950[source]
That sounds like you expect a competitive, free market for things as complex as the world's cutting edge CPU or nuclear weapons or fighter jet technology. I think when it gets as specialized and capital intensive as those things, a true free market is less likely to exist.