←back to thread

US Intel

(stratechery.com)
539 points maguay | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
themgt ◴[] No.45026515[source]
I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for the next five, ten, or even fifteen years, the seeds of that failure will eventually sprout, just like those 2007 seeds sprouted for Intel over the last couple of years. The only difference is that the repercussions of this failure will be catastrophic not for the U.S.’s leading semiconductor company, but for the U.S. itself.

Very well argued. It's such a stunning dereliction the US let things get to this point. We were doing the "pivot to Asia" over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt? "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost" but in this case the nail is like your entire metallurgical industry outsourced to the territory you plan on fighting over.

replies(19): >>45026609 #>>45026778 #>>45026847 #>>45027040 #>>45027203 #>>45027671 #>>45028085 #>>45028186 #>>45029665 #>>45029679 #>>45030185 #>>45031538 #>>45032843 #>>45034153 #>>45034357 #>>45034925 #>>45035444 #>>45035539 #>>45037189 #
georgeburdell ◴[] No.45026847[source]
If I may add my view as a formerly high-achieving semiconductor worker that Intel would benefit greatly from having right now, a lot of us pivoted to software and machine learning to earn more money. My first 2 years as a software engineer earned me more RSUs than a decade in semiconductors. Semiconductors is not prestigious work in the U.S., despite the strategic importance. By contrast, it is highly respected and relatively well remunerated in the countries doing well in it.

From this lens, the silver lining of the software layoffs going on may be to stem the bleeding of semiconductor workers to the field. If Intel were really smart, they’d be hiring more right now the people they couldn’t get or retain 3-5 years ago

replies(18): >>45027292 #>>45027313 #>>45027324 #>>45027461 #>>45027669 #>>45028613 #>>45029549 #>>45029983 #>>45030061 #>>45030126 #>>45030276 #>>45031422 #>>45031876 #>>45032206 #>>45033575 #>>45033652 #>>45033654 #>>45036422 #
troad ◴[] No.45027324[source]
We have developed an economy oriented around selling one another websites, and we are only belatedly noticing that none of our enemies seem to have followed.
replies(7): >>45027642 #>>45028398 #>>45028427 #>>45029093 #>>45030180 #>>45033231 #>>45034237 #
ulfw ◴[] No.45029093[source]
What 'enemies'?
replies(4): >>45029408 #>>45029587 #>>45030596 #>>45033310 #
tkiolp4 ◴[] No.45033310[source]
Exactly. If any, the US is one of those countries everybody else is afraid of. Americans may be proud of that, but that’s pure bullying.
replies(1): >>45035046 #
0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45035046[source]
>Americans may be proud of that, but that’s pure bullying.

It's slightly weird to me how foreigners seem to look on the Trump era as personifying the US to a greater degree than e.g. the Biden or Obama eras. Trump is not especially popular right now: https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker

replies(3): >>45035471 #>>45035694 #>>45036173 #
troad ◴[] No.45035694[source]
And for some reason Europe is always excused from that standard, despite Orban, Fico, Meloni, Wilders, Nawrocki, Erdogan, etc etc.

We're meant to believe that the 49%-to-48% election of Trump is some deep window into the eternal American psyche, but Orban's fifteen-year drive into corrupt, racist autocracy, endorsed by the voters at every turn, is just some sort of very temporary oopsie that says nothing at all about Europe.

When Meloni uses her pulpit as a popular Italian prime minister to attack gay families, you don't see anyone claiming this reflects the bullying nature of the Italian people, but that's par for the course for coverage of Americans and Trump. Swathes of Poland declaring themselves "gay free zones" is an aberration from European values, whereas anything that happens in deepest Alabama is the truest reflection of the American spirit.

It's mere hypocrisy.

replies(4): >>45035783 #>>45036221 #>>45036826 #>>45040284 #
0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45035783[source]
Don't forget France.

The far-right party is most popular by far: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

The majority of second-round polling has the far right winning the next presidency in France, potentially even by a landslide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2027_F...

For that reason, it's rather ironic to me when I see Europeans rally around Macron. France is poised to rug-pull Europe. Sorry guys.

BTW, guess which party is most popular in the UK? It's not particularly close: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/

At least AfD is merely a very close #2 in Germany: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/

Europe is sleepwalking.

replies(2): >>45036383 #>>45038221 #
ViewTrick1002 ◴[] No.45038221{4}[source]
It is easy to be in opposition and complain about everything. The contrarian parties tend to get very popular in the years between election cycles as the governing party can't deliver on everything and has to compromise.

Because you do know that Labour in the UK won a landslide victory a year ago and the last date for holding a new general election is in 2029.

The Scandinavian experience is that these parties crash as soon as they get to real power and have to compromise. Suddenly they had to be responsible.

If we do see these Trumpian parties win the majority in these elections in more rather than one-offs then we have a problem. But you're just fearmongering because you can't accept how completely wacko Trump is and need to blame it on "everyone does it!!!".

replies(1): >>45038621 #
0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45038621{5}[source]
>The contrarian parties tend to get very popular in the years between election cycles as the governing party can't deliver on everything and has to compromise.

So what happened in Hungary, or Italy, or other examples mentioned by troad?

Are you aware that RN, at this very moment, has by far the most seats of any party in the French parliament? Those far-right sentiments didn't magically disappear on election day.

>The Scandinavian experience is that these parties crash as soon as they get to real power and have to compromise. Suddenly they had to be responsible.

>If we do see these Trumpian parties win the majority in these elections in more rather than one-offs then we have a problem.

The "majority" comparison is meaningless in this context because the US only has support for two parties. (Imagine Germany had a contest between AfD and Die Linke only. That's akin to the situation in the US right now.) "Governing coalitions" aren't really formed here, so the notion of "they get to real power and have to compromise" doesn't exist in the same way.

So: Even assuming we grant your argument, Trump's power in the US has more to do with quirks of our political system than something fundamental about American culture.

>you can't accept how completely wacko Trump is

I never said he wasn't completely wacko. I simply said he doesn't personify the US any more than Biden does.

replies(1): >>45039202 #
ViewTrick1002 ◴[] No.45039202{6}[source]
> Are you aware that RN, at this very moment, has by far the most seats of any party in the French parliament? Those far-right sentiments didn't magically disappear on election day.

And the Social Democrats has been the largest party in Sweden since the early 1900s. Given that the left, with all parties combined, haven't held a majority since 2006 while managing to rule with a minority government from 2014 to 2022.

You make a lot of noise for understanding quite little.

Yes. The US has a broken political system, and you the American people haven't done jack shit to fix it.

> So: Even assuming we grant your argument, Trump's power in the US has more to do with quirks of our political system than something fundamental about American culture.

Trumps power in the US is entirely because he is what the American psyche wants or tolerates.

You keep attempting to dodge the outcome and blame it on everyone else. But you need to own it.

Trump is personifying America, which is quite evident given how he has won twice. The American people wants him.

replies(1): >>45039637 #
1. ◴[] No.45039637{7}[source]