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US Intel

(stratechery.com)
539 points maguay | 8 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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themgt ◴[] No.45026515[source]
I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for the next five, ten, or even fifteen years, the seeds of that failure will eventually sprout, just like those 2007 seeds sprouted for Intel over the last couple of years. The only difference is that the repercussions of this failure will be catastrophic not for the U.S.’s leading semiconductor company, but for the U.S. itself.

Very well argued. It's such a stunning dereliction the US let things get to this point. We were doing the "pivot to Asia" over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt? "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost" but in this case the nail is like your entire metallurgical industry outsourced to the territory you plan on fighting over.

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georgeburdell ◴[] No.45026847[source]
If I may add my view as a formerly high-achieving semiconductor worker that Intel would benefit greatly from having right now, a lot of us pivoted to software and machine learning to earn more money. My first 2 years as a software engineer earned me more RSUs than a decade in semiconductors. Semiconductors is not prestigious work in the U.S., despite the strategic importance. By contrast, it is highly respected and relatively well remunerated in the countries doing well in it.

From this lens, the silver lining of the software layoffs going on may be to stem the bleeding of semiconductor workers to the field. If Intel were really smart, they’d be hiring more right now the people they couldn’t get or retain 3-5 years ago

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troad ◴[] No.45027324[source]
We have developed an economy oriented around selling one another websites, and we are only belatedly noticing that none of our enemies seem to have followed.
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ulfw ◴[] No.45029093[source]
What 'enemies'?
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Henchman21 ◴[] No.45030596[source]
How about those folks actively engaging in behavior that damages the US?
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olivierduval ◴[] No.45031211[source]
In that regard, US is obviously Europe's enemy, isn't it ? ;-) :-D
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0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45035076[source]
Worth distinguishing between actively engaging in harmful behavior, and "failing to help". The Europeans have taken the US for granted for so long that when the US is only Ukraine's #1 donor country in absolute terms by far, their main response is to complain that even more help should be offered, and pretend the US is somehow hurting them.

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...

Keep in mind that Ukraine is literally on the opposite side of the world from us. What's Brazil doing for Ukraine? What's Australia doing?

As an American, I consistently argue that the US should not ally with Europe here on HN. But even I don't argue in favor of actively working to harm Europe. I just think we should cut Europe loose, because nothing we do for Europe will ever be enough, and Europe is a wealthy region that's plenty capable of providing for itself.

And before you say anything about tariffs (which are paid by US companies btw), read this article: https://archive.is/MxUAa See also https://archive.is/WQQ45

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1. ViewTrick1002 ◴[] No.45038238[source]
I love "US so big arguments", no one else cares!!

And then looking at per capita the US sits at number 16.

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2. 0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45038429[source]
>I love "US so big arguments", no one else cares!!

The US is being targeted specifically because we've given so much. No one is bothering Japan, or Argentina, or Saudi Arabia. It's because the US has been generous (in absolute terms) that we get so much flak.

Imagine if we sent thoughts and prayers the way Kazakhstan does. That way we would get less hate. When's the last time you heard Kazakhstan criticized for lack of Ukraine support?

>And then looking at per capita the US sits at number 16.

I don't think that is accurate: https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1hd7aud/military_ai...

As I said... nothing we do for Europe will ever be enough. Better to cut them loose.

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3. ViewTrick1002 ◴[] No.45038622[source]
You do know that the per capita number is from your own link? Japan sits at number 19 per capita.

Was the US doing about as much as Japan the argument you wanted to make?

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...

Or are just here to be a contrarian?

Maybe the US have an incentive in seeing the American built world order continue?

But hey, turn inward and let China and India win.

But don’t get mad when tariff situation with Europe etc. Is equalized over time and the American big tech is targeted to lessen the dependency.

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4. 0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45038814{3}[source]
>You do know that the per capita number is from your own link? Japan sits at number 19 per capita.

ctrl-f "per capita", nothing comes up.

I do notice that Japan is #19 in terms of % of GDP however...

I actually think your confusion here explains a lot. You don't know the difference between "per capita" and "GDP". That shows you don't speak English well. That's probably why you don't know much about the US.

The fundamental issue is that you think you know a lot, but you actually know little. You're mostly just reading what is written about the US in your native language. Probably there is lots of misinformation.

>Was the US doing about as much as Japan the argument you wanted to make?

Why is the US being harassed and not Japan?

>Or are just here to be a contrarian?

The absurdity of Europeans who complain endlessly about the US, while we've historically pursued a relatively generous foreign policy towards you, gets under my skin.

>Maybe the US have an incentive in seeing the American built world order continue?

I've very consistently stated in this thread, and on Hacker News more generally, that the US should abandon the so-called "American-built world order". It causes us no end of grief, as you are illustrating at this very moment with your comments.

>But hey, turn inward and let China and India win.

The US economy was doing amazing back when we were more isolationist. Switzerland does amazing despite rejecting memberships in multinational organizations like the EU and NATO. India is very explicit in its policy of "multi-alignment", i.e. avoiding big firm coalitions like EU/NATO.

You Europeans are so invested in the idea that America needs to protect Europe for America to succeed. As far as I can tell, this idea is total nonsense. Barely a shred of evidence is offered in favor of it.

China and India aren't exactly looking to form alternatives to NATO either. Why would a big country agree to defend a small country? It doesn't usually make sense from a national interest perspective.

>But don’t get mad when tariff situation with Europe etc. Is equalized over time and the American big tech is targeted to lessen the dependency.

You guys have been raiding big tech bank accounts for years now. You shouldn't be surprised by US retaliation. What goes around comes around. We can tell you're not actually our friends.

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5. ViewTrick1002 ◴[] No.45039128{4}[source]
Oh my god. This is so funny. You truly have to stoop down to insults because you are so fragile? Who hurt you?

Sorry, the massive difference of "per capita" and "% of GDP". Which would be aligned assuming equal GDP.

Given GDP differences between the donor countries the differences aren't meaningful. But sorry, I should have specified as "% of GDP" where the US is a joke comparatively.

What is even more funny is that I have lived a year in the US, I have traveled all over the US. I have college credits in American history. You know the tiny High School course "AP US History"? Have you heard of it?

Which is also why I was not surprised when Trump won in 2016. I had seen the culture. I had seen the close mindedness.

> The US economy was doing amazing back when we were more isolationist.

You mean the roaring 20s right before the great depression? Because that is the last time the US was isolationist.

Seems like you are dreaming about something you don't have the slightest clue about.

Your response is very typical for the absolute craziness that has infected the US psyche. Donald Trump is not a one off, he is what Americans want.

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6. 0xDEAFBEAD ◴[] No.45039422{5}[source]
>Oh my god. This is so funny. You truly have to stoop down to insults because you are so fragile? Who hurt you?

You were the one who started with dickish behavior. Don't dish it out if you can't take it.

>Given GDP differences between the donor countries the differences aren't meaningful. But sorry, I should have specified as "% of GDP" where the US is a joke comparatively.

Actually it does make a difference here. See the link I provided: https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1hd7aud/military_ai... Considering per capita, 8 months ago the US was more generous than almost all of Europe. Per capita is arguably the correct metric, since part of why US GDP is greater is because Americans work longer hours and take less vacation.

In any case, even if we consider the metric less favorable to the US (% of GDP), the US gives more as a fraction of GDP than almost every country outside Europe. If the US is a joke, than Spain, Ireland, France, and Italy are even funnier. We're very generous in every sense considering this isn't our war.

But since you call US aid a joke, I hope you won't miss it when it's gone. And I appreciate you confirming the points I've made, with your remark: Helping Ukraine gets us nothing but grief.

>You mean the roaring 20s right before the great depression? Because that is the last time the US was isolationist.

"Frustrated by French meddling in U.S. politics, Washington warned the nation to avoid permanent alliances with foreign nations and to rely instead on temporary alliances for emergencies... Washington’s remarks have served as an inspiration for American isolationism, and his advice against joining a permanent alliance was heeded for more than a century and a half."

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1784-1800/washington-fa...

The US economy mostly did great during that century and a half. Furthermore, the Great Depression was not simply caused by "isolationism". This is more intellectual sloppiness on your part.

I advocate a Swiss approach to foreign policy. That doesn't mean disengaging from other nations. It means not promising to help them with their problems.

Your continent, your problem. This is the approach that most of the world adopts towards Ukraine. The US was foolish to get involved. And we've been punished severely for it, by people like you. No more.

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8. troad ◴[] No.45041878{5}[source]
It's pretty wild that you think AP US History - an introductory course aimed at school-aged children - gives you some great insight into "the US psyche". An insight you gleamed as... what, a high school exchange student?