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US Intel

(stratechery.com)
539 points maguay | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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themgt ◴[] No.45026515[source]
I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for the next five, ten, or even fifteen years, the seeds of that failure will eventually sprout, just like those 2007 seeds sprouted for Intel over the last couple of years. The only difference is that the repercussions of this failure will be catastrophic not for the U.S.’s leading semiconductor company, but for the U.S. itself.

Very well argued. It's such a stunning dereliction the US let things get to this point. We were doing the "pivot to Asia" over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt? "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost" but in this case the nail is like your entire metallurgical industry outsourced to the territory you plan on fighting over.

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wat10000 ◴[] No.45027040[source]
Intel was the best until fairly recently. Then they still looked like the best to a non-expert observer, and then still looked at least competitive until even more recently. The modern world changes too fast for our governments to adapt to. Especially when we're talking about state of the art semiconductors and our leader was born before the invention of the transistor.
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scarface_74 ◴[] No.45027160[source]
Intel hasn’t been “the best” since the world cared more about mobile in 2010. There GPUs have always been also ran. It just wasn’t a big deal until crypto and later machine learning.

Even for integrated graphics, Intel has been behind Apple’s/TSMC ARM based processor before the Mx based Macs.

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qwytw ◴[] No.45027704[source]
Well on desktop and server they pretty much had no competition until the late 2010s or so. So they were the best by default.
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wat10000 ◴[] No.45027916[source]
And it took a long time for mobile CPUs to be considered important. Arguably mobile CPUs still aren't considered more important than desktop, even though they obviously sell more.
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qwytw ◴[] No.45027993[source]
Mobile CPUs are almost a commodity these days and fairly low margin especially compared to server chips. Most people really don't care what chip does their phone has and its almost always "good enough" relative to the price.

IMO that's much less of a case for laptop and desktop (let alone server). Even if people don't understand the technical details e.g. Apple's superior performance per watt (or its implications at least) is something a lot more people notice.

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1. SlowTao ◴[] No.45034379{6}[source]
Reminds me of the desktop/server processor space in the late 90's. At least this time we have a dozen vendors that are all using ARM instead of x86/POWER/DEC Aplha/MIPS/IA-64 & ARM. More chance of surviving together rather than making multiple moats.