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US Intel

(stratechery.com)
539 points maguay | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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themgt ◴[] No.45026515[source]
I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for the next five, ten, or even fifteen years, the seeds of that failure will eventually sprout, just like those 2007 seeds sprouted for Intel over the last couple of years. The only difference is that the repercussions of this failure will be catastrophic not for the U.S.’s leading semiconductor company, but for the U.S. itself.

Very well argued. It's such a stunning dereliction the US let things get to this point. We were doing the "pivot to Asia" over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt? "For want of a nail the kingdom was lost" but in this case the nail is like your entire metallurgical industry outsourced to the territory you plan on fighting over.

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craftkiller ◴[] No.45030185[source]
> over a decade ago but no one thought to find TSMC on a map and ask whether Intel was driving itself into the dirt?

Over a decade ago Intel wasn't driving itself into the dirt. Their failure was just beginning approximately 1 decade ago, starting with their failure at EUV leaving them trapped on 14nm.

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1. doytch ◴[] No.45034136[source]
Huh? He talked about and linked to a series of his older articles, including this one from 2013. [1] It's been a while.

[1]: https://stratechery.com/2013/the-intel-opportunity/

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2. craftkiller ◴[] No.45034781[source]
That article is from before Intel started to decline. Quoting the end of that article:

> Intel is already the best microprocessor manufacturing company in the world

Intel was not driving themselves into the dirt if they are the best in their field. Instead, I'd suggest looking at when the process nodes were achieved:

  |      | Someone Else   | Intel | Lead |
  |------+----------------+-------+------|
  | 32nm | 2011 (Samsung) |  2009 |    2 |
  | 22nm | 2013 (IBM)     |  2011 |    2 |
  | 14nm | 2015 (Samsung) |  2014 |    1 |
  | 10nm | 2017 (Samsung) |  2018 |   -1 |
  | 7nm  | 2018 (TSMC)    |  2021 |   -3 |
Seems almost exactly a decade ago that Intel lost their lead and fell behind the competition.