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335 points aspenmayer | 3 comments | | HN request time: 0.599s | source
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GeekyBear ◴[] No.45008439[source]
Didn't we already cross this particular Rubicon during the auto bailout a decade ago?

Other examples:

> Since the 1950s, the federal government has stepped in as a backstop for railroads, farm credit, airlines (twice), automotive companies, savings and loan companies, banks, and farmers.

Every situation has its own idiosyncrasies, but in each, the federal government intervened to stabilize a critical industry, avoiding systemic collapse that surely would have left the average taxpayer much worse off. In some instances, the treasury guaranteed loans, meaning that creditors would not suffer if the relevant industry could not generate sufficient revenue to pay back the loans, leading to less onerous interest rates.

A second option was that the government would provide loans at relatively low interest rates to ensure that industries remained solvent.

In a third option, the United States Treasury would take an ownership stake in some of these companies in what amounts to an “at-the-market” offering, in which the companies involved issue more shares at their current market price to the government in exchange for cash to continue business operations.

https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2022/08/23/piece-of-the-acti...

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thisisit ◴[] No.45011332[source]
First, what came out of these bailouts?

Each example industry continues to require some sort of government intervention to remain solvent at one point or the other. Auto/banks/saving and loans getting bailouts in 2008/2009. Airlines in 2020/2021 due to COVID etc. These industries employ a lot of people and now have become a political hot zone for voters so there is no way to remove these backstops now.

And whether these industries remain competitive globally is another question. Because it is always funny to hear countries accuse each other of propping up one industry or other through government intervention.

Second, these were industry wide bailouts. This action is not.

The genesis of CHIPS Act is a 2020 deal to onshore TSMC. The idea was to further persuade Samsung and Intel to produce chips in US through tax benefits, loan guarantees and grants. But now with US taking a stake in Intel, the strategy for onshoring TSMC and Samsung becomes unclear. Maybe the idea is to use tariffs to make TSMC and Samsung uncompetitive if they don't onshore but that is a bad idea. Because if Intel finds it easier to just coast on "national security" and continue producing last gen chips, they are going to do that and lower innovation even more. This is a win-win for Intel though.

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hopelite ◴[] No.45012259[source]
Also, if you are TSMC and Samsung, why bother “on-shoring” to America and not just make Americans pay the tariffs since there are no alternatives and it is unlikely that America can really compete. They will also be fighting the current as BRICS/Asian momentum picks up right in their front yard.
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klooney ◴[] No.45013464[source]
I mean for TSMC, a fab in Arizona means they can manufacture chips for drones and planes and ships even if Taiwan is blockaded and under assault.
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Larrikin ◴[] No.45013626[source]
Given with how poorly Ukraine has been treated, why would Taiwan ever think they could easily get an emergency supply of chips for drones and planes exported from the US and past a Chinese blockade?

If Trump or someone similar is in the office I'd expect that there would be demands that the chips stay in the US to protect the country from Chinese aggression unless there is some kind of bribe.

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bamboozled ◴[] No.45014487[source]
Exactly, no one with a brain is falling for this twice. Taiwan is wise to acquire nukes. Which is sad.
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Yeul ◴[] No.45019254[source]
Impossible. There is no way China will allow that- it would lead to a Cuba situation.
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1. galangalalgol ◴[] No.45025150[source]
If it happened it would be sudden, like Japan or South Korea having built their own, sending some to their neighbor. It still seems unlikely to me, but it isn't impossible. If China found out before they were installed it would likely instigate conflict. If they did not, I have no idea what would happen. That is an unstoppable force meets immovable object sort of situation.
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2. bamboozled ◴[] No.45032342[source]
Let's be honest. No one would touch them, just like N Korea or Russia,once you got the bombs, you're good.
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3. bamboozled ◴[] No.45033878[source]
Impossible. There is no way China will allow that- it would lead to a Cuba situation.

I can't see how this wouldn't favor Taiwan? All the US republicans would start screaming about WW3 etc, it would put major pressure on China. I'd say it would be ideal for Taiwan.

The discussion now seems to be, "How do we get the chips out of Taiwan so we can let it fall to authoritarianism with the least political fall out possible".