←back to thread

418 points speckx | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
JCM9 ◴[] No.44974621[source]
We are entering the “Trough of disillusionment.” These hype cycles are very predictable. GPT-5 being panned as a disappointment after endless hype may go down as GenAI’s “jump the shark” moment.

It’s all fun and games until the bean counters start asking for evidence of return on investment. GenAI folks better buckle up. Bumps ahead. The smart folks are already quietly preparing for a shift to ride the next hype wave up while others ride this train to the trough’s bottom.

Cue a bunch of increasingly desperate puff PR trying to show this stuff returns value.

replies(12): >>44974672 #>>44974721 #>>44974794 #>>44974830 #>>44974852 #>>44975105 #>>44975342 #>>44975381 #>>44975547 #>>44975669 #>>44975753 #>>44981385 #
highwaylights ◴[] No.44974672[source]
I wouldn’t be surprised if 95% of companies knew this was a money pit but felt obligated to burn a pile of money on it so as not to hurt the stock price.
replies(8): >>44974730 #>>44974803 #>>44974952 #>>44974990 #>>44975179 #>>44975354 #>>44975412 #>>44975966 #
lenerdenator ◴[] No.44974803[source]
I also wouldn't be surprised if bean counters were expecting a return in an unreasonable amount of time.

"Hey, guys, listen, I know that this just completely torched decades of best practices in your field, but if you can't show me progress in a fiscal year, I have to turn it down." - some MBA somewhere, probably, trying and failing yet again to rub his two brain cells together for the first time since high school.

Just agentic coding is a huge change. Like a years-to-grasp change, and the very nature of the changes that need to be made keep changing.

replies(5): >>44974920 #>>44974954 #>>44975109 #>>44975647 #>>44975784 #
1. omnicognate ◴[] No.44975647[source]
> Just agentic coding is a huge change

I've been programming professionally for > 20 years and I intend to do it for another > 20 years. The tools available have evolved continually, and will continue to do so. Keeping abreast of that evolution is an important part of the job. But the essential nature of the role has not changed and I don't expect it to do so. Gen AI is a tool, one that so far to me feels very much like IDE tooling (autocomplete, live diagnostics, source navigation): something that's nice to have, that's probably worth the time, and maybe worth the money, to set up, but which I can easily get by without and experience very little disadvantage.

I can't see the future any more than anyone else, but I don't expect the capabilities and limitations of LLMs to change materially and I don't expect to be left in the dust by people who've learned to wrangle wonders from them by dark magics. I certainly don't think they've "torched decades of best practice in my field". I expect them to improve as tools and, as they do, I may find myself using them more as I go about my job, continuing to apply all of the other skills I've learned over the years.

And yes, I do have an eye-wateringly expensive Claude subscription and have beheld the wonders of Opus 4. I've used Claude Code and worked around its shitty error handling [1]. I've seen it one-shot useful programs from brief prompts, programs I've subsequently used for real. It has saved me non-zero amounts of time - actual, measurable time, which I've spent doodling, making tea and thinking. It's extremely impressive, it's genuinely useful, it's something I would have thought impossible a few years ago and it changes none of the above.

[1] https://github.com/anthropics/claude-code/issues/473