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418 points speckx | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.428s | source
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JCM9 ◴[] No.44974621[source]
We are entering the “Trough of disillusionment.” These hype cycles are very predictable. GPT-5 being panned as a disappointment after endless hype may go down as GenAI’s “jump the shark” moment.

It’s all fun and games until the bean counters start asking for evidence of return on investment. GenAI folks better buckle up. Bumps ahead. The smart folks are already quietly preparing for a shift to ride the next hype wave up while others ride this train to the trough’s bottom.

Cue a bunch of increasingly desperate puff PR trying to show this stuff returns value.

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belter ◴[] No.44974852[source]
Prepare for the crash:

"Spending on AI data centers is so massive that it’s taken a bigger chunk of GDP growth than shopping" - https://fortune.com/2025/08/06/data-center-artificial-intell...

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1. herval ◴[] No.44975580[source]
This is such a huge repeat of the early 2000s. All the bust startups spent billions in infrastructure. Everyone built their own datacenters, no matter what your business is.

We'll either see a new class of "AWS of AI" companies that'll survive and be used by everyone (that's part of the play Anthropic & OpenAI are making, despite API generating a fraction of their current revenue), or Amazon + Google + Microsoft will remain as the undisputed leaders.

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2. chasd00 ◴[] No.44975708[source]
I remember the first dot com bust, you could find Herman Miller Aerons (the stereotypical inet-startup-guy chair) super cheap as well as fairly large Cisco 6509 routers and ...i think it was Sun Fire 15ks lol. I look forward to getting some nice GPUs at a discount.

idk what a person would do with a 6509 or a Sun Fire hah but they were all over craigslist iirc.