Yeah; there's still a massive chasm between "I spent hours precisely defining my requirements for this greenfield application with no users and the AI one-shot it" and "million line twenty team enterprise SaaS hellscale with ninety-seven stakeholders per line of code".
The fact that AI can actually handle the former case is, to be clear, awesome; but not surprising. Low-code tools have been doing it for years. Retool, even back in 2018, was way more productive than any LLMs I've seen today, at the things Retool could do. But its relative skill at these things, to me, does not conclusively determine that it is on the path toward being able to autonomously handle the latter.
The english language is simply a less formal programming language. Its informality means it requires less skill to master, but also means it may require more volume to achieve desired outcomes. At some level of granularity, it is necessarily the case that programming in english begins to look like programming in javascript; just with capital letters, exclamation points, and threats to fire the AI instead of asserts and conditionals. Are we really saving time, and thus generating higher levels of productivity? Or, is its true benefit that it enables foray into languages and domains you might be unfamiliar with; unlocking software development for a wider range of people who couldn't muster it before? Its probably a bit of both.
Dario Amodei says we'll have the first billion dollar solo-company by 2026 [1]. I lean toward this not happening. I would put money on even $100M not happening, barring some level of hyperinflation which changes our established understanding of what a dollar even is. But, here's what I will say: hitting levels of revenue like this, with a human count so low that the input of the AI has to overwhelm the input from the humans, is the only way to prove to me that, actually, these things might be more than freakin awesome tools. Blog posts from people making greenfield apps named after a furrsona DJ isn't moving the needle for me on this issue.
[1] https://www.inc.com/ben-sherry/anthropic-ceo-dario-amodei-pr...