If users update Grub once the old certificate is no longer used to sign the bootloader without updating their keyrings or firmware, Grub will probably stop booting with secure boot on when the certificate expires.
If users do update their systems and software, Grub will keep working.
Not updating is not a solution, unless the motherboard manufacturer really fucked up and doesn't validate the expiration date.
Luckily, fwupdmgr is integrated in the GUI updater tool on just about any Linux distro I know. As long as users don't ignore the "there are system updates available" popup and as long as the desktop vendor put out bare basic software support, things will probably go down fine.
The article mentions that most motherboards will probably not validate the expiration date. There is a residual concern that new versions of the Shim will not be signed with the expired key, and thus be unbootable on hardware that doesn't accept the new key.