Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.

> divorced from any kind of fundamentals

Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.

I’ve always dwelled over $5 a month subscriptions for iPhone apps due to subscription fatigue. I find myself signing up for $200 AI subscriptions without a moments hesitation.

I hope both of you know that you're in the extreme minority, right?

A very productive minority.

Have we seen any examples of any of these companies turning a profit yet even at $200+/mo? My understanding is that most, if not all, are still deeply in the red. Please feel free to correct me (not sarcastic - being genuine).

If that is the case at some point the music is going to stop and they will either perish or they will have to crank up their subscription costs.

It's possible Anthropic is cash-flow positive now.

Claude 3.7 Sonnet supposedly cost "a few tens of millions of dollars"[1], and they recently hit $4B ARR[2].

Those numbers seem to give a fair bit of room for salaries, and it would be surprising if there wasn't a sustainable business in there.

[1] https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/25/anthropics-latest-flagship...

[2] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-revenue-hi...