LLM Inevitabilism

One of the negative consequences of the “modern secular age” is that many very intelligent, thoughtful people feel justified in brushing away millennia of philosophical and religious thought because they deem it outdated or no longer relevant. (The book A Secular Age is a great read on this, btw, I think I’ve recommended it here on HN at least half a dozen times.)

And so a result of this is that they fail to notice the same recurring psychological patterns that underly thoughts about how the world is, and how it will be in the future - and then adjust their positions because of this awareness.

For example - this AI inevitabilism stuff is not dissimilar to many ideas originally from the Reformation, like predestination. The notion that history is just on some inevitable pre-planned path is not a new idea, except now the actor has changed from God to technology. On a psychological level it’s the same thing: an offloading of freedom and responsibility to a powerful, vaguely defined force that may or may not exist outside the collective minds of human society.

I'm pretty bearish on the idea that AGI is going to take off anytime soon, but I read a significant amount of theology growing up and I would not describe the popular essays from e.g., LessWrong as religious in nature. I also would not describe them as appearing poorly read. The whole "look they just have a new god!" is a common trope in religious apologetics that is usually just meant to distract from the author's own poorly constructed beliefs. Perhaps such a comparison is apt for some people in the inevitable AGI camp, but their worst arguments are not where we should be focusing.

While it's a fair criticism, just because someone doesn't believe in a god doesn't mean the religious hardware in their brain has been turned off. It's still there and operational - I don't think it's a surprise that this hardware's attention would then be automatically tuned to a different topic.

I think you can also see this in the intensification of political discussion, which has a similar intensity to religious discussions 100-200+ years ago (i.e. Protestant reformation). Indicating that this "religious hardware" has shifted domains to the realm of politics. I believe this shift can also be seen through the intense actions and rhetoric we saw in the mid-20th century.

You can also look at all of these new age "religions" (spiritualism, horoscopes, etc.) as that religious hardware searching for something to operate on in the absence of traditional religion.

I agree that modern hyper-online moralist progressivism and QAnonism are just fresh coats of paint on religion, but that isn't similar to AI.

AI isn't a worldview; it's an extremely powerful tool which some people happen to be stronger at using than others, like computers or fighter jets. For people who empirically observe that they've been successful at extracting massive amounts of value from the tool, it's easy to predict a future in which aggregate economic output in their field by those who are similarly successful will dwarf that of those who aren't. For others, it's understandable that their mismatched experience would lead to skepticism of the former group, if not outright comfort in the idea that such productivity claims are dishonest or delusional. And then of course there are certainly those who are actually lying or deluded about fitting in the former group.

Every major technology or other popular thing has some subset of its fandom which goes too far in promotion of the thing to a degree that borders on evangelical (operating systems, text editors, video game consoles, TV shows, diets, companies, etc.), but that really has nothing to do with the thing itself.

Speaking for myself, anecdotally, I've recently been able to deliver a product end-to-end on a timeline and level of quality/completeness/maturity that would have been totally impossible just a few years ago. The fact that something has been brought into existence in substantially less time and at orders of magnitude lower cost than would have been required a few years ago is an undeniable observation of the reality in front of me, not theological dogma.

It is, however, a much more cognitively intense way to build a product — with AI performing all the menial labor parts of development, you're boxed into focusing on the complex parts in a far more concentrated time period than would otherwise be required. In other words, you no longer get the "break" of manually coding out all the things you've decided need to be done and making every single granular decision involved. You're working at a higher level of abstraction and your written output for prompting is far more information-dense than code. The skills required are also a superset of those required for manual development; you could be the strongest pre-LLM programmer in the world, but if you're lacking in areas like human language/communication, project/product management, the ability to build an intuition for "AI psychology", or thinking outside the box in how you use your tools, adapting to AI is going to be a struggle.

It's like an industry full of mechanics building artisan vehicles by hand suddenly finding themselves foisted with budgets to design and implement assembly lines; they still need to know how to build cars, but the nature of the job has now fundamentally changed, so it's unsurprising that many or even most who'd signed up for the original job would fail to excel in the new job and rationalize that by deciding the old ways are the best. It's not fair, and it's not anyone's fault, but it's important for us all to be honest and clear-eyed about what's really happening here. Society as a whole will ultimately enjoy some degree of greater abundance of resources, but in the process a lot of people are going to lose income and find hard-won skills devalued. The next generation's version of coal miners being told to "learn to code" will be coders being told to "learn to pilot AI".

> It's not fair, and it's not anyone's fault, but it's important for us all to be honest and clear-eyed about what's really happening here.

Or we can just refuse this future and act as a society to prevent it from happening. We absolutely have that power, if we choose to organize and use it.