LLM Inevitabilism

If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is we can't wish it away.

Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions.

Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

> Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

Counterpoint: That's how I feel about ebikes and escooters right now.

Over the weekend, I needed to go to my parent's place for brunch. I put on my motorcycle gear, grabbed my motorcycle keys, went to my garage, and as I was about to pull out my BMW motorcycle (MSRP ~$17k), looked at my Ariel ebike (MSRP ~$2k) and decided to ride it instead. For short trips they're a game changing mode of transport.

Even for longer trips if your city has the infrastructure. I moved to the Netherlands a few years ago, that infrastructure makes all the difference.

Flatness helps

Infrastructure helps more. I live in a hilly city and break a mild sweat pedaling up a hill to get home from work (no complaints, it's good cardio). e-scooters and bikes - slowly - get up the hills too, but it's a major difference (especially for scooters) doing this up on an old bumpy sidewalk vs an asphalt bike path