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LLM Inevitabilism

(tomrenner.com)
1611 points SwoopsFromAbove | 3 comments | 15 Jul 25 04:35 UTC | HN request time: 0.583s | source
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delichon ◴[15 Jul 25 04:49 UTC] No.44567913[source]▶
If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is we can't wish it away.
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rafaelmn ◴[15 Jul 25 05:17 UTC] No.44568029[source]▶
If you claimed that AI was inevitable in the 80s and invested, or claimed people would be inevitably moving to VR 10 years ago - you would be shit out of luck. Zuck is still burning billions on it with nothing to show for it and a bad outlook. Even Apple tried it and hilariously missed the demand estimate. The only potential bailout for this tech is AR, but thats still years away from consumer market and widespread adoption, and probably will have very little to do with shit that is getting built for VR, because its a completely different experience. But I am sure some of the tech/UX will carry over.

Tesla stock has been riding on the self driving robo-taxies meme for a decade now ? How many Teslas are earning passive income while the owner is at work ?

Cherrypicking the stuff that worked in retrospect is stupid, plenty of people swore in the inevitability of some tech with billions in investment, and industry bubbles that look mistimed in hindsight.

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1. DiscourseFan ◴[15 Jul 25 18:11 UTC] No.44574172[source]▶
>Tesla stock has been riding on the self driving robo-taxies meme for a decade now

We do have self-driving taxis now, and they are so good that people will pay extra to take them. It's just not Tesla cars doing it.

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2. ben_w ◴[15 Jul 25 21:37 UTC] No.44576066[source]▶
Yes, and yet the rate of development and deployment is substantially slower than people like me were expecting.

Back in 2009, I was expecting normal people to be able to just buy a new vehicle with no steering wheel required or supplied by 2019, not for a handful of geo-fenced taxis that slowly expanded over the 6 years from 2019 to 2025.

3. guappa ◴[16 Jul 25 08:16 UTC] No.44579885[source]▶
Is still there some indian online to guide them through difficult intersections?