LLM Inevitabilism

LLMs are here, they aren't going away. Therefore they are part of our future. The real question is what else is in our future and whether LLMs are all we need. I think the answer to that is a solid no and the people phrasing the future in faster/better LLMs are probably missing the point as much as people thinking of cars as coaches with faster horses.

That future isn't inevitable but highly likely given on the trajectory we're on. But you can't specify a timeline with certainty for what amounts to some highly tricky and very much open research questions related to this that lots of people are working on. But predicting that they are going to come up completely empty handed seems even more foolish. They'll figure out something. And it might surprise us. LLMs certainly did.

It's not inevitable that they'll come up with something of course. But at this point they'd have to be fundamentally wrong about quite a few things. And even if they are, there's no guarantee that they wouldn't just figure that out and address that. They'll come up with something. But it probably won't be just faster horses.

A few things that are here:

  - LLMs
  - Cryptocurrencies
  - Mobile phones

Neither are going away, all are part of our future, but not equally.

The inevitabilism argument is that cryptocurrencies were just as hyped a few years ago as LLMs are now, and they're much less here now. So if you have an objection to LLMs being hyped and not wanting to use them, there's a real case they may slide into the background as a curious gimmick, like cryptocurrencies.

LLMs won't have the same fate as cryptocurrencies.

They're immediately useful to a lot of people, unlike cryptocurrencies.

More likely: When VC needs to capture back the money, and subscriptions go to their real level, we'll see 1) very expensive subscriptions for those who vibe, and 2) cheaper models filled with ads for the plebs, embedded into search engines, help desk software, and refrigerators.

LLMs do share one sad aspect with cryptocurrencies on account of being a hype: When the hype settles, because of economic reality, they'll feel shittier because we get the version we can afford: The LLM that replaces a human service worker whose effort was already at rock bottom. The cryptocurrency that resembles a slot machine.

In a utopia that wasn't run by VC money, taking any idea to an extreme for some sustainable reason other than a 10-year value capture plan, we might see some beautiful adoption into society.

Crypto was absolutely not where LLM is now. It's historical revisionism.