I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
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Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.
It makes me perhaps a little sad to say that "I'm showing my age" by bringing up the .com boom/bust, but this feels exactly the same. The late 90s/early 00s were the dawn of the consumer Internet, and all of that tech vastly changed global society and brought you companies like Google and Amazon. It also brought you Pets.com, Webvan, and the bajillion other companies chronicled in "Fucked Company".
You mention Anthropic, which I think is in a good a position as any to be one of the winners. I'm much less convinced about tons of the others. Look at Cursor - they were a first moving leader, but I know tons of people (myself included) who have cancelled their subscription because there are now better options.
Cursor has a $500mm ARR your anecdote might be meaningful in the medium turn but so far growth as not slowed down.
I'm an attorney that got pitched the leading legal AI service and it was nothing but junk... so I'm not sure why you think that's different from what's going on right now.
Briefpoint.ai, casely.ai, eve.legal etc. I work with an attorney who trained his paralegals to use chatgpt + some of these drafting tools, says it's significantly faster than what they could've done previously.
> I feel like big VC money goes to solving legal analysis, but I'm seeing a lot of wins with document drafting/templating.
What do you mean "wins?" Like motions won with AI drafted papers? I'm skeptical.
>I work with an attorney who trained his paralegals to use chatgpt + some of these drafting tools, says it's significantly faster than what they could've done previously.
I'd be concerned about malpractice, personally. The case reviews I've seen from Vincent (which is ChatGPT + the entire federal docket) are shocking in how facially wrong they can be. It's one thing for an attorney to use ChatGPT when they do know the law and issues (hasn't seemed to help the various different partners getting sanctioned for filing AI drafted briefs) but to leave the filtering to a paralegal? That's insane, imo.
I am not sure why you would think your single anecdote is defensible or evidence to prove much. My perspective is valuations that are going on right now don’t have multiples that are that wild especially if we aren’t compare it to the com bubble.
Evidence? Prove? What are you talking about. This is just a discussion between people, not some courtroom melodrama you are making it out to be.
>My perspective is valuations that are going on right now don’t have multiples that are that wild especially if we aren’t compare it to the com bubble.
Okay, I could be equally rude to you, but I wont.
As for valuations, when looking at current VC multiples and equity markets, I don’t see the same bubble from a qualitative perspective. Absolutely there is over hype coming from CEOs in public markets but there is a lot of value being driven. I don’t believe the giants are going to do well, maybe the infrastructure plays will but I think we will see a carve out of a new generation of companies driving the change. Unlike ‘99, I am seeing a lot more startups and products with closer to the ground roadmaps to profitability. In 99 so many were running off of hopes and dreams.
If you would actually like to converse I would love to see your perspective but if all you can be is mad please please don’t respond. Nobody is having a courtroom drama other than what’s playing out in your head.