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Random selection is necessary to create stable meritocratic institutions

(assemblingamerica.substack.com)
360 points namlem | 9 comments | 14 Jul 25 15:28 UTC | HN request time: 0.023s | source | bottom
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like_any_other ◴[15 Jul 25 13:50 UTC] No.44571164[source]▶
> Juries, widely trusted to impartially deliver justice, are the most familiar instance.

Trusted by those that have not looked into whether this is actually the case. The first prime minister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, was famously against trial by jury, because of how easily lawyers can abuse biases in multiracial societies, based on his first-hand experience [1].

A UK study found his experience is the norm, not the exception - Black and minority ethnic (BME) jurors vote guilty 73% of the time against White defendants, but only 24% of the time against BME defendants [2]. (White jurors vote 39% and 32% for convicting White and BME defendants, respectively. You read that correctly - Whites are also biased against other Whites, but to a much lesser degree)

Edit: To answer what is the alternative to juries: Not all countries use juries, in some the decision is up to the judge, and in some, like France, they use a mixed system of judges and jurors on a panel [3]. The French system would be my personal preference, with the classic jury system coming in second, despite my jury-critical post. Like democracy, it's perhaps the least bad system that we have, but we shouldn't be under any illusions about how impartial and perceptive a group of 12 people selected at random is.

[1] https://postcolonialweb.org/singapore/government/leekuanyew/...

[2] https://www.ucl.ac.uk/judicial-institute/sites/judicial-inst... - page 165 (182 by pdf reader numbering), figure 6.4

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury

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digitalPhonix ◴[15 Jul 25 14:20 UTC] No.44571429[source]▶
That statistic could also be the result of excessive prosecution against black/minorities and not necessarily just jury bias. (Which would also explain the white bias against whites)
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1. sebmellen ◴[15 Jul 25 14:40 UTC] No.44571629[source]▶
If you're curious about this topic, I'd recommend you look up interviews with the jurors in the OJ Simpson trial. Many were black and by their own admission made their decision about OJ's guilt-based entirely on a feeling of racial justice. They considered it “payback.”

https://youtu.be/BUJCLdmNzAA?feature=shared

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2. dmonitor ◴[15 Jul 25 16:47 UTC] No.44573160[source]▶
OJ Simpson is was such a famous case that I'd be inclined to treat it as an outlier in many ways, not the norm.
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3. hiimkeks ◴[15 Jul 25 16:55 UTC] No.44573263[source]▶
I don't think one of the most high-profile and racially charged cases in history can serve as a reasonable benchmark for how the bulk of cases are handled.

Edit: Not sure why I am being downvoted, I tried to say the same thing dmonitor said.

4. wat10000 ◴[15 Jul 25 17:14 UTC] No.44573508[source]▶
And the LAPD seems to have decided OJ was guilty based largely on a feeling of racial prejudice. The fact that he actually did it was coincidental. I've often seen that trial described as the LAPD framing a guilty man. The prosecution did a terrible job and I'm not at all convinced the acquittal wasn't the correct verdict, even if it's pretty clearly contrary to the facts of what happened.

It seems safe to assume that the LAPD also did/does this to less famous people of color, in which case a higher rate of voting to acquit would not indicate bias by the jury.

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5. taeric ◴[15 Jul 25 17:19 UTC] No.44573562[source]▶
Agreed. Outliers are a thing. As is cherry-picking data to try and prove a point.

Sucks, as this level of cherry-picking heavily biases me against the premise. If someone has a good data set, they don't need to drive anecdotes from the outliers. And if they are, is it an attempt to hide that the overall data paints a different picture?

6. thephyber ◴[15 Jul 25 19:48 UTC] No.44575114[source]▶
But I would argue that jury mentality is universal.

Any juror who knows about the concept of jury nullification is more likely to use it when the defendant reminds them of themselves or when the prosecution has so vastly disproportionate resources over the defendant that the trial can’t possibly be fair.

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7. thephyber ◴[15 Jul 25 19:54 UTC] No.44575169[source]▶
I would argue OJ would have been arrested far earlier for DV (long before the murder) if the LAPD didn’t have such a hard-on for the celebrity.
8. reverendsteveii ◴[15 Jul 25 20:40 UTC] No.44575589{3}[source]▶
>I would argue that jury mentality is universal

Then argue it, because that's a pretty large thing to say unsupported

9. eszed ◴[17 Jul 25 07:24 UTC] No.44590666[source]▶
> not at all convinced the acquittal wasn't the correct verdict

I agree with you. I followed it closely at the time, and thought acquittal was the correct verdict based (only) on what the jury saw. We court-watchers, of course, saw everything that the defense managed to exclude, and came to a different (and I do believe more accurate) conclusion, but the jury got it - from their (deliberately constructed by the defense) point of view - right.

It was a formative episode in my civic understanding.