Cognition (Devin AI) to Acquire Windsurf

I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.

Remember that the web also had a bubble that popped and look at where are we now with Google, Amazon, Meta...

I think that there is a bubble but it's shaped more like the web bubble and less like the crypto bubble.

“Web” is such a broad category. Quite a leap from LLM wrappers.

Well, LLMs are themselves very broad. They encompass everything from web search to everything that you could automate yourself but don't have the time.

I don't LLM capacities have to reach human-equivalent for their uses to multiply for years to come.

I don't LLM technology as it exists can reach AGI by the simple addition of more compute power and moreover, I don't think adding computer necessarily is going to provide proportionate benefit (indeed, someone pointed-out that the current talent race acknowledges that brute-force has likely had it's day and some other "magic" is needed. Unlike brute-force, technical advances can't be summoned at will).

> Well, LLMs are themselves very broad.

I think overstating their broad-ness is core to the hype-cycle going on. Everyone wants to believe—or wants a buyer to believe—that a machine which can grow documents about X is just as good (and reliable) as actually creating X.