←back to thread

LLM Inevitabilism

(tomrenner.com)
1612 points SwoopsFromAbove | 1 comments | 15 Jul 25 04:35 UTC | HN request time: 0.209s | source
Show context
delichon ◴[15 Jul 25 04:49 UTC] No.44567913[source]▶
If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is we can't wish it away.
replies(17): >>44567949 #>>44567951 #>>44567961 #>>44567992 #>>44568002 #>>44568006 #>>44568029 #>>44568031 #>>44568040 #>>44568057 #>>44568062 #>>44568090 #>>44568323 #>>44568376 #>>44568565 #>>44569900 #>>44574150 #
rafaelmn ◴[15 Jul 25 05:17 UTC] No.44568029[source]▶
If you claimed that AI was inevitable in the 80s and invested, or claimed people would be inevitably moving to VR 10 years ago - you would be shit out of luck. Zuck is still burning billions on it with nothing to show for it and a bad outlook. Even Apple tried it and hilariously missed the demand estimate. The only potential bailout for this tech is AR, but thats still years away from consumer market and widespread adoption, and probably will have very little to do with shit that is getting built for VR, because its a completely different experience. But I am sure some of the tech/UX will carry over.

Tesla stock has been riding on the self driving robo-taxies meme for a decade now ? How many Teslas are earning passive income while the owner is at work ?

Cherrypicking the stuff that worked in retrospect is stupid, plenty of people swore in the inevitability of some tech with billions in investment, and industry bubbles that look mistimed in hindsight.

replies(6): >>44568330 #>>44568622 #>>44568907 #>>44574172 #>>44580115 #>>44580141 #
Qwertious ◴[15 Jul 25 07:46 UTC] No.44568907[source]▶
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhr6fHmCJ6k (1min video, 'Elon Musk's broken promises')

Musk's 2014/2015 promises are arguably delivered, here in 2025 (took a little more than '1 month' tho), but the promises starting in 2016 are somewhere between 'undelivered' and 'blatant bullshit'.

replies(1): >>44569611 #
1. rafaelmn ◴[15 Jul 25 10:02 UTC] No.44569611[source]▶
I mean no argument here - but the insane valuation was at some point based on a fleet of self driving cars based on cars they don't even have to own - overtaking Uber. I don't think they are anywhere close to that. (It's hard to keep track what it is now - robots and AI ?) Kudos for hype chasing all these years tho. Only beaten by Jensen on that front.