←back to thread

502 points alazsengul | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.425s | source
Show context
pm90 ◴[] No.44564397[source]
I think the amount of turmoil around these deals is giving more weight to the possibility that we’re in a massive bubble thats quite divorced from any kind of fundamentals. Sooner or later the bubbles gonna burst.
replies(13): >>44564436 #>>44564444 #>>44564507 #>>44564837 #>>44564856 #>>44564871 #>>44565061 #>>44566422 #>>44568840 #>>44570092 #>>44570792 #>>44571345 #>>44572790 #
nikcub ◴[] No.44564871[source]
> divorced from any kind of fundamentals

Anthropic ARR went $1B -> $4B in the first half of this year. They're getting my $200 a month and it's easily the best money I spend. There's definitely something there.

replies(22): >>44564952 #>>44564962 #>>44565035 #>>44565278 #>>44565374 #>>44565387 #>>44565422 #>>44565447 #>>44565517 #>>44565637 #>>44565761 #>>44565844 #>>44566449 #>>44567425 #>>44568353 #>>44569351 #>>44569976 #>>44570595 #>>44571349 #>>44572134 #>>44575913 #>>44579934 #
1. csomar ◴[] No.44569351[source]
1. If you're maxing out your subscription, they're burning money on you.

2. They don't have a moat. DeepSeek and Kimi are already good enough to destroy any high margins they're hoping to generate from compute.

Just because something is highly useful doesn't mean it's highly profitable. Water is essential to life, but it's dirt cheap in most of the world. Same goes for food.

replies(1): >>44570912 #
2. mark_l_watson ◴[] No.44570912[source]
I agree. I was experimenting with tool use with Kimi K2 APIs yesterday - very effective, and so incredibly inexpensive. I am retired, now doing independent research, so my requirements are very different than most people here who are still in the job market or growing their own business.

I find a combination of local Ollama models, with very inexpensive APis like Moonshot’s Kimi with occasional Gemini 2.5 Pro use, and occasionally using gemini-cli provides extraordinary value. Am I missing out by not using one or more $200-$300 a month subscriptions? Probably but I don’t care.