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LLM Inevitabilism

(tomrenner.com)
1616 points SwoopsFromAbove | 2 comments | 15 Jul 25 04:35 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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delichon ◴[15 Jul 25 04:49 UTC] No.44567913[source]▶
If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is we can't wish it away.
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NBJack ◴[15 Jul 25 05:00 UTC] No.44567951[source]▶
Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions.

Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

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zulban ◴[15 Jul 25 05:05 UTC] No.44567981{3}[source]▶
> Remember ...

No, I don't remember it like that. Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it?

You don't. I love the argument ad absurdum more than most but you've taken it a teensy bit too far.

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1. Jensson ◴[15 Jul 25 07:39 UTC] No.44568869{4}[source]▶
> Do you have any serious sources from history showing that Segway hype is even remotely comparable to today's AI hype and the half a trillion a year the world is spending on it?

LLM are more useful than Segway, but it can still be overhyped because the hype is so much larger. So its comparable, as you say LLM is so much more hyped doesn't mean it can't be overhyped.

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2. brulard ◴[15 Jul 25 09:42 UTC] No.44569520[source]▶
I get immense value out of LLMs already, so it's hard for me to see them as overhyped. But I get how some people feel that way when others start talking about AGI or claiming we're close to becoming the inferior species.