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LLM Inevitabilism

(tomrenner.com)
1613 points SwoopsFromAbove | 2 comments | 15 Jul 25 04:35 UTC | HN request time: 0.566s | source
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delichon ◴[15 Jul 25 04:49 UTC] No.44567913[source]▶
If in 2009 you claimed that the dominance of the smartphone was inevitable, it would have been because you were using one and understood its power, not because you were reframing away our free choice for some agenda. In 2025 I don't think you can really be taking advantage of AI to do real work and still see its mass adaptation as evitable. It's coming faster and harder than any tech in history. As scary as that is we can't wish it away.
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NBJack ◴[15 Jul 25 05:00 UTC] No.44567951[source]▶
Ironically, this is exactly the technique for arguing that the blog mentions.

Remember the revolutionary, seemingly inevitable tech that was poised to rewrite how humans thought about transportation? The incredible amounts of hype, the secretive meetings disclosing the device, etc.? That turned out to be the self-balancing scooter known as a Segway?

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godelski ◴[15 Jul 25 05:05 UTC] No.44567973[source]▶
I think about the Segway a lot. It's a good example. Man, what a wild time. Everyone was so excited and it was held in mystery for so long. People had tried it in secret and raved about it on television. Then... they showed it... and... well...

I got to try one once. It was very underwhelming...

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1. anovikov ◴[15 Jul 25 05:42 UTC] No.44568167[source]▶
Problem with Segway was that it was made in USA and thus was absurdly, laughably expensive, it cost the same as a good used car and top versions, as a basic new car. Once a small bunch of rich people all bought one, it was over. China simply wasn't in position at a time yet to copycat and mass-produce it cheaply, and hype cycles usually don't repeat so by the time it could, it was too late. If it was invented 10 years later we'd all ride $1000-$2000 Segways today.
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2. haiku2077 ◴[15 Jul 25 05:50 UTC] No.44568206[source]▶
> If it was invented 10 years later we'd all ride $1000-$2000 Segways today.

I chat with the guy who works nights at my local convenience store about our $1000-2000 e-scooters. We both use them more than we use our cars.