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314 points cjr | 7 comments | | HN request time: 0.543s | source | bottom
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decimalenough ◴[] No.44536914[source]
> The aircraft achieved the maximum recorded airspeed of 180 Knots IAS at about 08:08:42 UTC and immediately thereafter, the Engine 1 and Engine 2 fuel cutoff switches transitioned from RUN to CUTOFF position one after another with a time gap of 01 sec. The Engine N1 and N2 began to decrease from their take-off values as the fuel supply to the engines was cut off.

So the fuel supply was cut off intentionally. The switches in question are also built so they cannot be triggered accidentally, they need to be unlocked first by pulling them out.

> In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff. The other pilot responded that he did not do so.

And both pilots deny doing it.

It's difficult to conclude anything other than murder-suicide.

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burnt-resistor ◴[] No.44539178[source]
> It's difficult to conclude anything other than murder-suicide.

You're leaping into the minds of others and drawing conclusions of their intent. One of them moved the levers. It could've been an unplanned reaction, a terrible mistake, or it could've been intentional. We may never know the intention even with a comprehensive and complete investigation. To claim otherwise is arrogance.

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1. sugarpimpdorsey ◴[] No.44539262[source]
> One of them moved the levers. It could've been an unplanned reaction, a terrible mistake, or it could've been intentional.

Fuel levers are designed to only be moved deliberately; they cannot be mistaken for something else by a professional pilot. It's literally their job to know where these buttons are, what they do, and when to (not) push them.

It's not arrogance to assume the most likely conclusion is true, despite how uncomfortable that outcome may be.

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2. burnt-resistor ◴[] No.44539580[source]
> cannot be mistaken for something else

Assumption. Big ass assumption.

Pilot are trained until actions are instinctual and certain memory items are almost unconscious. But pilots are still people and people are fallible and make mistakes, and sometimes act unreasonably. Intent cannot be determined without clear evidence or statements because that's now how thoughts locked away in people's minds work.

> It's not arrogance to assume the most likely conclusion is true

You don't know this. This is beyond the capability to know and is therefore pure speculation. That is the definition of arrogance.

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3. YuukiRey ◴[] No.44539915[source]
It’s the explanation that requires the fewest explanations and assumptions I’d say.
4. Aeolun ◴[] No.44540047[source]
> You don't know this.

That it isn’t certain doesn’t change anything about it being pretty likely.

Unpleasant, but I suppose at least it means we won’t suddenly see other planes falling out of the sky due to fuel switches being set to off.

5. neuronic ◴[] No.44540749[source]
The most likely scenario is not necessarily the truth. It still remains pure speculation and nothing else.
6. Voloskaya ◴[] No.44541220[source]
> sometimes act unreasonably. Intent cannot be determined without clear evidence or statements because that's now how thoughts locked away in people's minds work.

By this logic it would be impossible to ever find anyone guilty of murder (or any other nefarious action) with intent unless they explicitly state that it was in fact their intent. Obviously this is not how justice works anywhere, because at some point you have to assume that the overwhelmingly most likely reason for doing an action was the true reason.

If someone pulls out a gun, cock it, aim it at someone and pull the trigger, killing the other person, should we hold off any judgement because they might have done it purely mechanically while in their head thinking about the lasagna they are going to cook tonight and not realizing what they were doing ?

The fuel cut off switches have a unique design, texture and sequence of action that need to be taken to actuate them, they don’t behave like any other switch. Pilot are also absolutely not trained to engage with those particular switches until it’s instinctual.

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7. jltsiren ◴[] No.44541416{3}[source]
Courts do not seek to establish the truth. They aim for a reasonable balance between false positives (innocents convicted of crimes they didn't commit) and false negatives (criminals allowed to go free). In practice, the false positive rate is probably around 5%, and innocents go to prison all the time.

Air accident investigations mostly deal with one-in-a-billion freak occurrences. Commercial aviation so safe and reliable that major accidents rarely happen without a truly extraordinary cause.